In this section we will discuss different product from the extended-range forecasts. We will discuss also the verification aspects and drivers of predictability.
- The extended forecasts are produced twice a week (Monday and Thursday). The forecast resolution is ~36 km (15 - 46 days). The extended forecasts start from Day 14 of the ENS.
- Forecasts are produced for the coming 46 days with focus on week to week changes in the weather.
- Forecasts are generally presented for the first 32 days in terms of anomalies relative to the climate
- The long forecast ranges are best used if presented as multi-days means (maximize the possibility to capture predictable signals)
- Overall, on extended range web charts, the confidence one can have in the forecast is "over-stated". The true chances of the event occurring are in general lower.
- Small scale features on anomaly maps should not be over interpreted. Focus on the large scale
- Other products are of value: potential tropical cyclone activity, MJO indices, potential Sudden Stratospheric Warming activity.
- For early forecast ranges check anomalies. Then monitor evolution and trends. Make a forecast accordingly.
The figures below can be downloaded from here
More details are available in the Forecast user guide.
