Status:Finalised Material from: Ervin

 

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/04/18/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/04/19/sc/


Picture

1. Impact

On 16 to 19 April Texas was hit by heavy rainfall and 5 people believed to be dead at least.  It seems to be a historical event with the ~450 mm (17.6 inch) rain that fell near Houston. See e.g. this BBC link.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-36079009


2. Description of the event

The 3 day total (radar+gauge estimate 16th 13 UTC - 19th 13 UTC) looks impressive, but in fact only a relatively small area received over 200 mm in southeast of Texas just west from Houston. Most of the rain fell anyway in a ~24-hour period or so.



3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plots below show the 24-hour precipitation from NEXRAD together with a 0-1 day forecast and 4-5 day forecast.



3.3 ENS

The plots below show the EFI for precipitation for the period 16-19 April.



3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases

 

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material