Status:Finalised Material from: Ervin
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/04/18/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/04/19/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
On 16 to 19 April Texas was hit by heavy rainfall and 5 people believed to be dead at least. It seems to be a historical event with the ~450 mm (17.6 inch) rain that fell near Houston. See e.g. this BBC link.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-36079009
2. Description of the event
The 3 day total (radar+gauge estimate 16th 13 UTC - 19th 13 UTC) looks impressive, but in fact only a relatively small area received over 200 mm in southeast of Texas just west from Houston. Most of the rain fell anyway in a ~24-hour period or so.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show the 24-hour precipitation from NEXRAD together with a 0-1 day forecast and 4-5 day forecast.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the EFI for precipitation for the period 16-19 April.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases