Evaluation Products


Product name

Description

(established over forecast horizon)

OutputsForecasting horizon Forecast model
Historical

Forecast Skill

Maximum lead time (in days), up to 30-days ahead, when the GloFAS river discharge forecast skill (CRPSS) is greater than 0.5, evaluated against both persistence and climatology benchmark forecasts with river discharge reanalysis as reference. Detailed results are shown when clicking on individual stations.

Map

Forecast metrics graphs

30 days

ECMWF-ENS reforecasts (11 ensemble members)

Historical Seasonal forecast skill

Maximum lead time (in weeks), up to the 16 weeks lead time, when the GloFAS river discharge forecast skill (CRPSS) is greater than 0.5, evaluated against the climatology benchmark forecast with river discharge reanalysis as reference. Detailed results are shown when clicking on individual stations.

Map

Forecast metrics graphs

16 weeksECMWF-SEAS5 reforecasts (25 ensmble members)
Historical Hydrological model performance

Modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) and the three decomposition scores (bias and variability ratios and correlation) with monthly mean and daily time series for stations with observations. In addition, the daily GloFAS simulation is also provided for the full reanalysis period together with the flood thresholds. Detailed results are shown when clicking on individual stations, which are coloured according to the KGE values.


MapNAReanalysis