Objective: the Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is an organization aiding "victims of armed conflicts, epidemics, and other disasters". Currently the MSF has a permanent team on the ground in Philippines to provide medical aid to endemic outbreaks (cholera, etc) across the region. On a regular basis, they request extended range forecasts for Philippines to help them in activity planning including deploying extra staff and medical supplies to mitigate the impact of Tropical Cyclone on populations. Prepare a extended range forecast considering some of the extended range products available to the Members in particular the Tropical Cyclone products (weekly means), weekly Ensemble mean for precipitation...
Skill forecast
Some references are listed below:
- Vitart, F., A. Leroy and M.C. Wheeler, 2010: A comparison of dynamical and statistical predictions of weeklytropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev, 138, 3671–3682.
- Belanger J., Webster P.J., Curry J.A., 2011 Extended Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones using the ECMWF Variable Ensemble Prediction System: Mon. Wea. Rev. (pdf)
- Belanger, J., Curry J.A., Webster P.J., 2010: Predictability of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Intraseasonal time scales. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 4362-4374 (pdf)
- ....
Forecast products
Have a look at the forecast products below and assess the likelihood of tropical cyclone genesis in the coming weeks. keep in mind the climate (model) frequency for the region and season. What is your assessment for the week starting 16 Oct 2016?
Charts displaying the weekly mean strike probability for Tropical Storms (>= 34 kt). The full set of Tropical Cyclone products are available in http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue?f[0]=im_field_parameters%3A1072&f[1]=im_field_chart_type%3A482
As you know the extended forecast products are updated twice a week (Tuesday & Fridays). Now check the latest products (based on the forecast started on 00Z 10th of October).
Identify whether or not an MJO is present in the forecasts issued on the 6th and 10th October.
Top: MJO index. Read a brief description how to read the MJO index diagram.
Finally assess any weather impact related (or not) with any tropical cyclone activity looking at the anomaly and probability (anomaly ≥ 66% M Climate) maps
Top Panels: Weakly mean anomalies for precipitation based on the forecasts initiated on 00Z 6th October (left) and 00Z 10th (right) valid for for 17-23 October. Bottom Panels: Same but for the probability of anomaly above the upper tercile.