Every day, ECMWF produces various global Analyses and Forecasts and archives them in MARS. The first ECMWF numerical model in 1979 was a grid-point model with 15 levels in the vertical and a horizontal resolution of 1.875 degrees in latitude and longitude, corresponding to a grid length of 200 kilometres. A number of major changes have occurred since ECMWF's activity started:
- IFS Cycle 48r1, implemented on 27 June 2023, increased the horizontal resolution of the medium-range ensemble (ENS) from 18 to 9 km and introduced a major upgrade to the configuration of the extended-range ensemble (ENS extended): Rather than being an extension of the medium-range forecasts starting twice a week at day 15 it will be a completely separate system, running daily from 00 UTC out to day 46 with 101 members. Over the entire forecast range the resolution will remain unchanged at 36 km horizontally and 137 model levels. As a result of these configuration changes Cycle 48r1 will offer two sets of re-forecasts (=hindcasts), one for the medium range and one for the extended range.
The upgrade to IFS Cycle 47r2 on 11 May 2021 increased the vertical resolution for the ensemble (ENS, streams enfo, enfh, efov, efho) from 91 to 137 model levels, bringing it in-line with the HRES resolution.
- 5 Nov 2017: Implementation of Seasonal Forecast SEAS5
- With the upgrade on 22 November 2016, the medium-range ensemble and its monthly extension see a major upgrade in the dynamical ocean model (NEMO): the resolution is increased from 1° and 42 layers to 0.25° and 75 layers (ORCA025Z75). Furthermore, NEMO model version v3.4.1 with the interactive sea-ice model (LIM2) is implemented. The ocean and sea-ice components of the ENS initial conditions are provided by the new ocean analysis and reanalysis suite ORAS5, which uses the new ocean model and revised ensemble perturbation method.
- On 8 March 2016 with the introduction of cycle 41r2 the horizontal resolution was upgraded, equivalent to about 9 km for HRES and the data assimilation (the outer loop of the 4D-Var) and to about 18 km for the ENS up to day 15. The resolution of the ENS extended (day 16 up to day 46) is about 36 km. Cycle 41r2 also introduced a new reduced Gaussian grid, the octahedral grid. > Full description
In addition, various other projects run on a regular basis, such as Seasonal Forecast, Multi-Analysis Ensemble, Monthly Forecast and Sensitivity forecast, or have run in the past, for example the ECMWF reanalyses. All their outputs are available in MARS. The majority of Observations used as model input are also available in MARS.
A comprehensive list of changes in the ECMWF model can be found on our main website, giving detailed documentation on significant changes to the operational forecasting system.
Products
In order to know the data available from MARS, users need to be familiar with ECMWF's activities. The overview given below is not exhaustive. It is rather meant as an introduction to ECMWF's activities and the most common products. Users wanting to learn more are encouraged to study the Forecast User Guide.
The datasets pages on the main website provide a good entry point to browse the MARS content in particular for operational and reanalysis data. From there you will also find links into the MARS Catalogue, which allows you to browse the entire MARS content.
Operational data produced daily at ECMWF
Atmospheric models
- Analysis:global analyses for the four main synoptic hours 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. They are the best gridded estimate of the state of the atmosphere (best fit to observations). For each of the synoptic hours, data is produced at the following levels:
- Surface fields represent the meteorology at the surface.
- Model levels are used in ECMWF's forecast model to resolve the atmosphere in the vertical.
- Pressure levels are interpolated by the model from its Model Levels.
- Isentropic levels are either potential vorticity or potential temperature.
- Forecast:global 10-day forecasts based on the 00/12 UTC Analysis (the 00 UTC run started on March 2001 as an experimental suite for severe weather prediction). Forecast products are classified in the same level types as Analysis data: Surface, Model levels, Pressure levels, and Isentropic levels. Meteorological parameters are written output for every forecast time step, 3-hourly intervals from 00 to 72 hours, and 6-hourly from 72 to 240 hours.
- First guess:a forecast with base time from the previous synoptic hour and a forecast time step of (usually) 6 hours. Note that since the change to 12 hour-cycling 4d-Var in the year 2000, this type of data has been discontinued.
- Initialised Analysis:the best 'balanced' gridded estimate of the state of the atmosphere (initial state of the forecast). With the implementation of the three dimensional variational Analysis (3d-Var) on January 1996, the Initialised Analysis is no longer produced, and the Analysis is the best and the best 'balanced' gridded estimate of the atmosphere.
- Four-dimensional variational Analysis:analyses using observations over a time window (e.g. a 6 hour 4d-Var at cycle hh will contain observations from hh-02:59 to hh+03:00).
- Errors in Analysis:the assumed uncertainty of an observation is combined with the assumed uncertainty of the First Guess, resulting in an estimate of the total uncertainty in the Analysis
- Errors in First Guess:result of the uncertainty of the First Guess compared with observations
- Four-dimensional variational Analysis increments:the low resolution increment which is added to the first-guess after each inner loop minimisation.
Ocean wave models
Since 1998, ECMWF's atmospheric model is coupled with a wave model.
HRES-WAM (High RESolution WAve Model) is coupled to the atmospheric model (HRES) while HRES-SAW (High RESolution Stand Alone Wave model) is run as a standalone model. HRES-SAW, formerly known as LAM WAM (Limited Area Model WAM), Mediterranean or European Wave Model, now covers the whole globe (see Cycle 41r1 upgrade).
HRES-WAM and HRES-SAW offer the same parameters globally. > more details
Ensemble Prediction System
ECMWF's Ensemble Prediction System has a coupled atmospheric and wave model. On 28 November 2006 the Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) has been introduced by extending the forecast range from 10 to 15 days with a resolution of T399L62 for day 1 to day 10 (Leg 1) and T255L62 for day 11 to day 15 (Leg 2). On 11 March 2008 the Monthly Forecasting System, running once a week, has been integrated with the VarEPS. The new monthly forecast products were produced for the first time on 13 March 2008. With Cycle 48r1, 12 May 2015, Leg 2 was extended to 46 days (instead of 32) on Mondays and Thursday (at 00UTC) and the number of re-forecasts increased to 11 members twice per week. On 8 March 2016, Cycle 41r2, the upgraded horizontal resolution increased to about 18 km up to day 15 and about 36 km for the extended range. The resolution of the ensemble of data assimilations (EDA) is increased to 18 km. With Cycle 43r1, 22 November 2016, the resolutions of the dynamical ocean model (NEMO) increased from 1 degree and 42 layers to 0.25 degrees and 75 layers. The upgrade to IFS Cycle 47r2 on 11 May 2021 increased the vertical resolution for the ensemble (ENS, streams enfo, enfh, efov, efho) from 91 to 137 model levels.
IFS Cycle 48r1, implemented on 27 June 2023, increased the horizontal resolution of the medium-range ensemble (ENS) from 18 to 9 km and introduced a major upgrade to the configuration of the extended-range ensemble (ENS extended): Rather than being an extension of the medium-range forecasts starting twice a week at day 15 it will be a completely separate system, running daily from 00 UTC out to day 46 with 101 members. Over the entire forecast range the resolution will remain unchanged at 36 km horizontally and 137 model levels. As a result of these configuration changes Cycle 48r1 will offer two sets of re-forecasts (=hindcasts), one for the medium range and one for the extended range.
- Control forecast: an unperturbed forecast at a lower resolution than the main HRES 10-day forecast. Forecast runs to 15 days, with lower resolution from truncation step 240 onwards. Data is available on Surface, Model levels, Pressure levels and Isentropic levels.
- Calibration/Validation forecast: VarEPS includes two constant-resolution forecasts for calibration and validation purposes which run for both resolutions from day 1 - 15. Data is available on Surface, Model levels, Pressure levels and Isentropic levels.
- Perturbed forecasts: different forecasts to 10 days with perturbed initial conditions. They are numbered from 1 to N depending on the EPS setup. Data is available on the Surface and on Pressure levels and Isentropic levels.
- Initial condition perturbations: the initial conditions for the EPS are designed to represent the uncertainties inherent in the operational analysis. They are created by adding perturbations to the operational analysis which produce the fastest energy growth during the first two days of the forecast period, defined using the singular vector technique.
- Forecast probabilities: a statistical distribution of the weather parameters from all ensemble members is used to produce probabilistic weather forecasts. With the introduction of VarEPS this data type has been discontinued.
- Event probabilities: provide the probabilities of the occurrence of weather events at each grid point. The probabilities are calculated on the basis that each ensemble member is equally likely.
- Ensemble means: are means of the ensemble forecast members.
- Clusters: similar ensemble members are grouped together into clusters. The mean and standard deviation of these clusters are computed (as well as the mean and standard deviation of the overall ensemble). Five sets of clusters are computed, one for the entire European area, and four for smaller areas.
- Tubes: another clustering method which averages all ensemble members which are close to the ensemble mean and excludes members which are significantly different.
- Extreme Forecast Index (EFI): measures the difference between the probability distribution from the EPS and the model climate distribution.
Boundary conditions
The Boundary Condition Optional Programme (BC) was initially set up in June 2000, to provide participating Member States with boundary conditions for their limited area models: four additional 3D-Var Analysis runs for 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC with a cut-off time of 4 hours, followed by global 4-day forecasts. All analysis data but only the forecast from 00 UTC are archived.
Since 14 Mar 2006 the BC production has been merged with the main operational forecast suite. In the new configuration, only the 06 and 18 UTC runs are part of the BC suite. For 00 and 12 UTC analysis and forecast are provided by the main operational HRES runs. Now all four data assimilation cycles are based on 6h 4d-Var with a cut-off time of 4 hours.
Since 15 Nov 2011 hourly output is produced from all 4 forecast runs.
The BC analysis and forecast fields, also referred to as short cut-off, are stored temporarily in MARS as STREAM=SCDA. The hourly data for 00 and 12 UTC are archived together with the main forecast runs as STREAM=DA.
On 22 June 2015 additional ensemble forecasts at 06/18 UTC have been added to the archive. The data can be retrieved using stream ENFO and WAEF.
There is currently only limited temporal storage in MARS for these products in line with the archive data available for 00 and 12 UTC, and no model levels are archived for the perturbed forecasts. Model level data can only be retrieved from MARS while the data is still available in the FDB, which is usually for up to two days for all four ENS cycles. Since July 2018 the full BC ENS data is available online in a rolling archive covering 30 days, see ENS BC model level data in MARS.
Valid BC data are available to members of the BC programme. They are also available to NMHSs of WMO, international organisations and research projects according to the rules laid out in the "Rules governing the distribution and dissemination of ECMWF real-time products".
Since 1 October 2018 the hourly data from 00/06/12/18Z forecast runs produced in the Boundary Conditions Programme are part of the Catalogue of ECMWF real-time products as " High Frequency Products".
Multi-Analysis Ensemble
Every day ECMWF receives Analyses from four centres, NCEP, The Met Office, Météo-France and Deutscher Wetterdienst, and runs 5 forecasts, 1 based on each different analyses plus one compound of all the analyses (consensus) including ECMWF's Analysis.
Seasonal Forecast
ECMWF started an experimental programme for seasonal prediction in 1995, which attempts to predict seasonal changes by coupling three models: atmospheric, wave and ocean models. > More information on the Seasonal Forecast
Monthly Forecast
The monthly forecast (extended-range) is an extension of the ensemble (ENS) twice a week, on Monday and Thursday, to 46 days. > More information on the Monthly Forecast
Monthly Forecast (7 Oct. 2004 - 11 March 2008)
This section describes the archiving of the monthly forecasting system after it became operational (7 October 2004 ) and before it was merged into the Ensemble Prediction System (11 March 2008).
Pre-operational Monthly Forecast (1990 - 2004)
This section describes the archiving of the monthly forecasting system before it became operational (7 October 2004).
Stand alone Ocean Analysis
The main purpose of the ocean analysis is to provide initial conditions for the extended range forecasts (seasonal and monthly). There are two streams: The re-analysis stream spans the period 1959 up to 11 days behind real time whereas the real-time stream started in August 2006. > System 3 Ocean Analysis documentation
Monthly and climatology datasets
ECMWF maintains an archive of monthly means data from the atmospheric and wave model archive. The resolution and internal representation of the archive may change according to changes in ECMWF's operational practice.
- Atmospheric Analysis monthly means are averaged over the calendar month for each of the synoptic times 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC.
- Atmospheric Forecast monthly means: are the average of all the forecasts for a particular step that verify in the selected calendar month. All monthly means are archived at model resolution.
- Wave Analysis monthly means: are averaged over the calendar month for each of the synoptic times 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC.
- Wave forecast monthly means: are the average of all the forecasts for a particular step that verify in the selected calendar month. Wave Monthly means are archived at 1.5 degree resolution.
There is a limited climatology data set, which contains the Geopotential and Temperature on Pressure Levels for each month of the year. The data originally came from NCEP, Washington, and it was processed to store it in MARS. Although it is available to users, it is recommended that modern applications use the Monthly means archive or the Re-Analysis Monthly means archive for climatology purposes.
ECMWF reanalyses
ECMWF periodically uses its forecast models and data assimilation systems to 'reanalyse' archived observations, creating global data sets describing the recent history of the atmosphere, land surface, and oceans. Reanalysis data are used for monitoring climate change, for research and education, and for commercial applications.
Available ECMWF reanalysis datasets include: analysis, forecast and forecast accumulations as output from atmospheric models, as well as analysis and forecast from a wave-model reanalysis. There is also a Monthly Means data set containing data at the resolution of the data assimilation and forecast system used by each reanalysis.
Special datasets
- MACC Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate > see in MARS Catalogue
- Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) S2S is a WWRP/THORPEX-WCRP joint research project established to improve forecast skill and understanding on the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale, and promote its uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community > see in MARS Catalogue
- TIGGE The International Grand Global Ensemble is a key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2 week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. Global ensemble forecasts to around 14 days generated routinely at different centres around the world. Currently data from ECMWF, JMA (Japan), Met Office (UK), CMA (China), NCEP (USA), MSC (Canada), Météo-France, BOM (Australia), CPTEC (Brazil) and KMA (Korea) is archived. > see in MARS Catalogue
- DEMETER is the acronym of the EU-funded project "Development of a European Multi model Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction" . The objective of the project is to develop a well-validated European coupled multi-model ensemble forecast system for reliable seasonal to inter annual prediction. Six comprehensive European global coupled atmosphere-ocean models are being installed at ECMWF, those of: ECMWF, Météo-France, LODYC, Met Office, MPI, INGV, INM-HIRLAM and CERFACS. > see in MARS Catalogue
Data Targeting System A pre-operational Data Targeting System (DTS) will be developed to assess the feasibility of operational adaptive control of the observing system and as a facility to aid research projects using data targeting. The DTS will be developed and hosted at ECMWF. The work is jointly funded by EUCOS and the EC as part of the PREVIEW Integrated Project (work package WP3320) of the EU 6th Framework Programme. A real-time trial of the DTS will run between February and December 2008. > see in MARS Catalogue
- ECSN -HIRETYCS is the European Climate Support Network. HIRETYCS is the High Resolution Ten Year Climate Simulation. This data set consist of 10-year climate simulations produced at three centres: Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Max-Planck Institute (MPI) and United Kingdom Met Office. > see in MARS Catalogue
- ELDAS ECMWF is a participant in the Development of a European Land Data Assimilation System to predict Floods and Droughts (ELDAS) project funded by the European Union. > see in MARS Catalogue
- ENSEMBLES The EU-funded ENSEMBLES project intends to develop an ensemble prediction system for climate change based on the principal state-of-the-art, high resolution, global and regional Earth System models developed in Europe, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal to decadal and longer timescales. A large set of seasonal, annual and decadal hindcasts is available which have been produced with different forecast systems run by ECMWF, Météo-France, Met Office, IfM, INGV and CERFACS. These systems addressed the important problem of the impact of model uncertainty on forecast error by using the multi-model, stochastic physics and perturbed parameters approaches. > see in MARS Catalogue
- EURO4M European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring project is a EU funded project that provides timely and reliable information about the state and evolution of the European climate. It combines observations from satellites, ground-based stations and results from comprehensive model-based regional reanalyses. By closely monitoring European climate, climate variability and change can be better understood and predicted. > see in MARS Catalogue
- MERSEA Development of a European system for operational monitoring and forecasting of the ocean physics, biogeochemistry, and ecosystems, on global and regional scales > see in MARS Catalogue
- NOAA/CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis version II > see in MARS Catalogue
PROVOST stands for Prediction Of climate Variations On Seasonal to inter annual Time scales. They are a set of experiments from four centres: ECMWF, Météo-France, EDF and Met Office. The experiments are 120 day runs from 9 consecutive starting days, with write-ups every 24 hours of Pressure level and Surface data. > see in MARS Catalogue
- TOST is the THORPEX Observing System Test, an experiment carried out at the end of 2003 to evaluate targeted observations in an Ensemble Prediction System. There is output from 3 different models, ECMWF, Météo-France and United Kingdom Met Office. > see in MARS Catalogue
- YOPP Year Of Polar Prediction > see in MARS Catalogue
- YOTC Year of tropical convection > see in MARS Catalogue
TOGA is an archive of level III-A atmospheric data to support the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) core project Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA). This archive accommodates the 10 year period beginning 1 January 1985, fulfilling ECMWF's role as a TOGA Data Centre. The production of this archive has been discontinued only on 29/2/2016. > see in MARS Catalogue
Research experiments
A vast amount of data is archived daily containing IFS (Integrated Forecast System) experiments produced by ECMWF's Research Department or by Member States' users at ECMWF. Basically, an experiment can address any area of meteorology and it is archived accordingly. Users wanting to retrieve Research experiments need to know in advance the name of the specific experiment and its nature. For this information please, contact User Support.
Member States projects
Some Member States also archive output other than from IFS into MARS. One example of such activity is the COSMO-LEPS forecast suite, running daily at ECMWF.
Input data to ECMWF models or for verification/scores
Fields
ECMWF archives a selection of products, both Analysis and Forecast, from other Centres: Exeter, Melbourne, Montreal, Offenbach, Toulouse, Tokyo and Washington. Most of these products exist on the GTS and they are combined to create global fields with ECMWF local GRIB header extensions added. A convention exists to create empty (dummy) fields when there are missing data (e.g. if problems arise at one of the Centres or on the GTS).
There are other fields which are used as input for the ECMWF forecasting system (e.g. Sea Surface Temperatures from Washington which are used by ECMWF's Analysis).
Images from Meteosat and GOES Satellites are coded in GRIB and archived in MARS.
Observations
Observations used as input to the assimilation system are also archived in MARS, as well as the Feedback on how the observations are used in the analysis. There are, amongst others:
- Surface data, conventional and satellite data covering: synoptic observations, soil and earth temperature, buoy information and PAOB observations (pseudo surface pressure observations in the Southern Hemisphere).
- Vertical soundings, conventional and satellite data: PILOT, TEMP, ROCOB, RTOVS, ATOVS, SATEM.
- Upper-air data, conventional observations such as AIREP and ACARS, together with satellite upper-air SATOB, high resolution winds and geostationary radiances.
MARS also holds the observations in the form of files as they are presented to the Analysis (Analysis Input), as well as the feedback files (Analysis Feedback). These are mainly used to allow to reproduce in the future any past operational run. There is one set of files per synoptic time.
Data formats
Archived data is stored in two WMO formats: GRIB for fields and BUFR for observations. In addition, observation feedback is archived in the ECMWF/IFS format ODB (Observational Data Base). In general, the retrieved data is returned in the archive format. However, with the Data Server or the Web API it is possible to request fields to be returned in netCDF format.
WMO FM 92-IX Ext GRIB
GRIB (General Regularly-distributed Information in Binary form) is a WMO defined format for meteorological field data, or (more generally) any regularly spaced gridded data. All ECMWF model output is in GRIB format with ECMWF local extensions in their headers. The GRIB format is handled via the ecCodes software. Fields are archived in one of the following spatial coordinate systems:
Spherical Harmonics (SH) mainly for upper air fields
Gaussian Grid (GG) mainly for surface data, although some upper air fields as well
Latitude/Longitude (LL) other centre's data, wave and ocean data
For the correspondence between the three types of grid resolutions see the following table
The correspondence between the spectral resolution, the reduced Gaussian grid and the approximate latitudinal resolution is listed in the table below. In column "Spectral" T denotes the truncation number. The reduced Gaussian grids are specified by the number of lines between the Pole and Equator, preceded by N for the ECMWF original reduced Gaussian grid and O for the octahedral ECMWF reduced Gaussian grid. The octahedral grid has first been introduced on 8 March 2016 to the operational high resolution and ensemble datasets.
Correspondence between resolutions of ECMWF grid types | ||
Spectral | Gaussian | Lat/Lon |
T63 | N48 | 1.875 |
T106 | N80 | 1.125 |
T159 | N80 | 1.125 |
T213 | N160 | 0.5625 |
T319 | N160 O320 | 0.5625 0.28125 |
T511 | N256 | 0.351 |
T639 | N320 O640 | 0.28125 0.141 |
T799 | N400 | 0.225 |
T1023 | N512 | 0.176 |
T1279 | N640 O1280 | 0.141 0.070 |
WMO FM-94 BUFR
BUFR (Binary Universal Form for the Representation of meteorological data) is a WMO defined format for point data (irregularly spaced), which is used for archived observations. The BUFR format is handled via BUFREX and other subroutines provided by the ECMWF BUFRDC software.
ODB
In the IFS observations are handled by ODB (Observational Data Base).
ODB is a
- Hierarchical in-core database with a data definition and query language: ODB/SQL
- A data format
- ...
ODB Observation Feedback (ofb) data is archived in MARS to improve its representation in the MARS meta data. ODB also introduces SQL capabilities to request feedback data.
- To improve the handling of observations, ODB will be further integrated into ECMWF systems
See ODB API for more details.