On 12th October 2021, IFS cycle 47r3 was implemented, which included the new "Moist Physics" package, and as such, there have been changes in the characteristics of many forecast fields. 

Further information on the impacts of 47r3 on surface weather representation is available on the Forecast User Portal at this link, including examination of a range of synoptic situations involving precipitation, and other variables. 


We welcome any feedback, perspectives and experiences from our forecast user community regarding any changes in precipitation forecasts in the tropics that have been noticed since the implementation of cycle 47r3. Some of the types of feedback we're interested in could include changes noticed in the rainfall in a particular area/region of the tropics, or in relation to a particular type of event or synoptic situation, or more general observations. 

If you would like to provide any feedback related to this topic, or comments on experiences with these forecasts, please add your comment in the comments section below this post (log in or register to comment). Images such as forecast charts can also be added to comments. We may not be able to respond directly to every comment, but will be monitoring and joining the discussions, and considering feedback in our ongoing research and diagnostics work. 







5 Comments

  1. NEA MSS

    Hi,


    I noticed that with the new physics package, there appears to be some improvement in the model to simulate the decay/redevelopment of Sumatra squall line.

    It is common for squalls to weaken as they are about to make landfall closer to Singapore, and only later to redevelop again as they move eastward toward the South China Sea over the sea areas.

    This is a general observation and I'll try to find some examples.


    Regards,

    Songhan.

    Wong_Songhan@nea.gov.sg 

    1. Rebecca Emerton

      Hi Songhan NEA MSS, thank you very much for sharing this observation regarding changes to the forecasts of Sumatra squall lines. It is very interesting to hear about this improvement - any further details or examples are of course welcome. I understand from your comment that the weakening of squalls before landfall and their later redevelopment is improved in 47r3 compared to previous cycles - I'm not familiar with previous issues related to forecasts of these features, but look forward to discussing this further with colleagues who may be more familiar! Thanks again, Rebecca

  2. tomi ilham pahlewi

    Hi,

    I find big jumpiness from the new IFS precipitation forecast across Jakarta and surrounding area. Here is the sample of January 7th 2022 forecast for precipitation accumulation for 06-12 UTC and  also Jakarta weather  radar image for 08.01 UTC.

    This big jumpiness happen after the latest operational update of IFS 0.125 degree  resolution.


     


    Regards,

    Tomi,

    tomi.pahlewi@bmkg.go.id

  3. Rebecca Emerton

    The following comments and feedback were sent by Abdulla Al Balushi (Oman Met Service) on twitter in response to a tweet sharing this forum topic: 

    1/ If we take the latest Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclone #Shaheen - which orginated near west coast of india, I would say that ECMWF was one of the few models which had consistency in forecasting the track of the system and its performance was very good.  I am not sure about the total amount of rainfall (you can check with northern oman weather stations during the event and compare it with fcst), but the track strike was very good, and we appreciated it.

    2/ In northern part of Oman (Alhajar mountains); In Summer, we get afternoon thunderstorms development due to advection of tropical moisture from Arabian Sea, ECMWF development team needs do more effort to see the low performance of the model in forecasting this thunderstorms. Other famous global models, some how do good with the indicated convections activity. But ECMWF since long time is not doing well in forecasting it even before upgrade.

  4. Rebecca Emerton

    The following comments were sent by يوسف السناني @hakem_aszman on twitter in response to a tweet sharing this forum topic (translated from Arabic by Google on Twitter):

    بالنسبة لمنطقة شبه الجزيرة العربية، لاحظت في الترقية الأخيرة للنموذج الأوروبي تحسن واضح في استشعار الهطول المطري، لاسيما نتيجة الرفع الناتج عن عوامل حرارية بل أنه يبالغ بعض الشي. الترقية السابقة كانت توقعات الأمطار التصاعدية يستشعرها في توقع العواصف الرعدية دون أن يرسم هطول.يتبع
    For the Arabian Peninsula region, I noticed in the recent upgrade of the European model a clear improvement in the sense of precipitation, especially as a result of the rise caused by thermal factors, but it exaggerates some thing. The previous upgrade was the upward rain forecast sensed in forecasting thunderstorms without drawing precipitation.

    بالتبعية، توقع الهطول ضمن مؤشرات الطقس المتطرف EFI في النموذج فقدت جزء من دقتها في المنطقة، ولدي إنطباع أن الترقية السابقة كانت أفضل في هذا المؤشر. أتصور أن النموذج سيواجه بعض المشاكل في توقعات أمطار الربيع على شبه الجزيرة العربية من ناحية غزارة الهطول...يتبع
    Accordingly, the prediction of precipitation within the EFI indicators in the model lost part of its accuracy in the region, and I have the impression that the previous upgrade was better in this indicator. I imagine that the model will face some problems in the forecast of spring rains on the Arabian Peninsula in terms of precipitation...Continued

    والحال نفسه في توقع الحالات المدارية، لكنه سيكون تحت التجربة. في المقابل اتوقع أن تكون توقعات النماذج جيدة في توقعات روايح الصيف على حجر شمال عمان ومرتفعات اليمن والسعودية خلال فصل الصيف القادم.
    The same is true in predicting tropical conditions, but it will be under experiment. On the other hand, I expect that the forecasts of the models will be good in forecasting the summer fragrances over the Hajar north of Oman and the highlands of Yemen and Saudi Arabia during the coming summer.