Comparison of scores of model cycle 38r1 (combination of research experiments and the current e-suite) and cycle 37r3 (the current operational model) verified by the respective analyses or radiosonde observations at 00UTC for 2 June 2011 to 10 May 2012.

    anomaly
correlation
rms
error
standard
deviation
europeagainst analysisRelative humidity300hPa 
700hPa 
Temperature100hPa 
500hPa 
850hPa 
1000hPa 
Wind200hPa 
850hPa 
Geopotential100hPa 
500hPa 
850hPa 
1000hPa 
europe
n.afr
against observationsTemperature100hPa 
500hPa 
850hPa 
1000hPa 
Wind200hPa 
850hPa 
Geopotential100hPa 
500hPa 
1000hPa 
n.hemagainst analysis10m wind  
Relative humidity300hPa 
700hPa 
Wave height  
Temperature100hPa 
500hPa 
850hPa 
1000hPa 
Wind200hPa 
850hPa 
Geopotential100hPa 
500hPa 
850hPa 
1000hPa 
against observationsTemperature100hPa 
500hPa 
850hPa 
1000hPa 
Wind200hPa 
850hPa 
Geopotential100hPa 
500hPa 
1000hPa 
s.hemagainst analysis10m wind  
Relative humidity300hPa 
700hPa 
Wave height  
Temperature100hPa 
500hPa 
850hPa 
1000hPa 
Wind200hPa 
850hPa 
Geopotential100hPa 
500hPa 
850hPa 
1000hPa 
against observationsTemperature100hPa 
500hPa 
850hPa 
1000hPa 
Wind200hPa 
850hPa 
Geopotential100hPa 
500hPa 
1000hPa 
tropicsagainst analysis10m wind  
Relative humidity300hPa 
700hPa 
Wave height  
Temperature100hPa 
500hPa 
850hPa 
1000hPa 
Wind200hPa 
850hPa 
against observationsTemperature100hPa 
500hPa 
850hPa 
1000hPa 
Wind200hPa 
850hPa 

Symbol legend: for a given forecast step... (d: score difference, s: confidence interval width)
Cy38r1 far better than Cy37r3 statistically significant (the confidence bar above zero by more than its height )(d/s>3)
Cy38r1 better than Cy37r3 statistically significant (d/s≥1)
Cy38r1 better than Cy37r3, yet not statistically significant (d/s≥0.5)
not really any difference between Cy37r3 and Cy38r1
Cy38r1 worse than Cy37r3, yet not statistically significant (d/s≤-0.5)
Cy38r1 worse than Cy37r3 statistically significant (d/s≤-1)
Cy38r1 far worse than Cy37r3 statistically significant (the confidence bar below zero by more than its height) (d/s<-3)
Statistical significance evaluated by paired t-test for 95% significance level.