Comparison of scores of model cycle 38r1 (combination of research experiments and the current e-suite) and cycle 37r3 (the current operational model) verified by the respective analyses or radiosonde observations at 00UTC for 2 June 2011 to 10 May 2012.
anomaly correlation | rms error | standard deviation | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
europe | against analysis | Relative humidity | 300hPa | |||
700hPa | ||||||
Temperature | 100hPa | |||||
500hPa | ||||||
850hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
Wind | 200hPa | |||||
850hPa | ||||||
Geopotential | 100hPa | |||||
500hPa | ||||||
850hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
europe n.afr | against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | |||
500hPa | ||||||
850hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
Wind | 200hPa | |||||
850hPa | ||||||
Geopotential | 100hPa | |||||
500hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
n.hem | against analysis | 10m wind | ||||
Relative humidity | 300hPa | |||||
700hPa | ||||||
Wave height | ||||||
Temperature | 100hPa | |||||
500hPa | ||||||
850hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
Wind | 200hPa | |||||
850hPa | ||||||
Geopotential | 100hPa | |||||
500hPa | ||||||
850hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | ||||||
850hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
Wind | 200hPa | |||||
850hPa | ||||||
Geopotential | 100hPa | |||||
500hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
s.hem | against analysis | 10m wind | ||||
Relative humidity | 300hPa | |||||
700hPa | ||||||
Wave height | ||||||
Temperature | 100hPa | |||||
500hPa | ||||||
850hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
Wind | 200hPa | |||||
850hPa | ||||||
Geopotential | 100hPa | |||||
500hPa | ||||||
850hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | ||||||
850hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
Wind | 200hPa | |||||
850hPa | ||||||
Geopotential | 100hPa | |||||
500hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
tropics | against analysis | 10m wind | ||||
Relative humidity | 300hPa | |||||
700hPa | ||||||
Wave height | ||||||
Temperature | 100hPa | |||||
500hPa | ||||||
850hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
Wind | 200hPa | |||||
850hPa | ||||||
against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
500hPa | ||||||
850hPa | ||||||
1000hPa | ||||||
Wind | 200hPa | |||||
850hPa |
Symbol legend: for a given forecast step... (d: score difference, s: confidence interval width)
Cy38r1 far better than Cy37r3 statistically significant (the confidence bar above zero by more than its height )(d/s>3)
Cy38r1 better than Cy37r3 statistically significant (d/s≥1)
Cy38r1 better than Cy37r3, yet not statistically significant (d/s≥0.5)
not really any difference between Cy37r3 and Cy38r1
Cy38r1 worse than Cy37r3, yet not statistically significant (d/s≤-0.5)
Cy38r1 worse than Cy37r3 statistically significant (d/s≤-1)
Cy38r1 far worse than Cy37r3 statistically significant (the confidence bar below zero by more than its height) (d/s<-3)
Statistical significance evaluated by paired t-test for 95% significance level.