Comparison of scores of IFS Cycle 45r1 (combination of research experiments and the current test suite) and IFS Cycle 43r3 (the current operational cycle) verified by the respective analyses or in-situ observations (TEMP, SYNOP, BUOY) at 00 and 12UTC in the period 1 December 2016 to 30 April 2018 (in total 781  high-resolution and 321 ensemble forecast runs).

Each symbol in a cell represents 1 forecast day, i.e 10 days for HRES and 15 days for ENS.

HRES


Extratropical
Northern
Hemisphere
Extratropical
Southern
Hemisphere
Tropics

Anomaly correlation/
SEEPS(*)
RMS error/
Std. dev.of error(*)
Anomaly correlation/
SEEPS(*)
RMS error/
Std. dev.of error(*)
Anomaly correlation/
SEEPS(*)
RMS error/
Std. dev.of error(*)
AnalysisGeopotential100




250




500




850



Mean sea level pressure



Temperature100


250


500


850


1000

2m temperature

Wind100


250


500


850


1000

10m wind

Relative
humidity
250


700

10m wind at sea

Significant wave height
*
*
*

Mean wave period
*
*
*
ObservationsGeopotential100




250




500




850



Temperature100


250


500


850

2m temperature




Wind100


250


500


850

10m wind




Relative
humidity
250


700

2m dew-point




Total cloud cover




24h precipitation
*
*
*

Significant wave height

*

*

*

EuropeNorthern AmericaEast Asia

Anomaly correlation/
SEEPS(*)
RMS error/
Std. dev.of error(*)
Anomaly correlation/
SEEPS(*)
RMS error/
Std. dev.of error(*)
Anomaly correlation/
SEEPS(*)
RMS error/
Std. dev.of error(*)
AnalysisGeopotential100


250


500


850

Mean sea level pressure

Temperature100


250


500


850


1000

2m temperature

Wind100


250


500


850


1000

10m wind

Relative
humidity
250


700
ObservationsGeopotential100


250


500


850

Temperature100


250


500


850

2m temperature




Wind100


250


500


850

10m wind




Relative
humidity
250


700

2m dew-point




Total cloud cover




24h precipitation
*
*
*

Northern AtlanticNorthern Pacific

Anomaly correlation/
SEEPS(*)
RMS error/
Std. dev.of error(*)
Anomaly correlation/
SEEPS(*)
RMS error/
Std. dev.of error(*)
AnalysisGeopotential100


250


500


850

Mean sea level pressure

Temperature100


250


500


850


1000

2m temperature

Wind100


250


500


850


1000

10m wind

Relative
humidity
250


700

10m wind at sea

Significant wave height
*
*

Mean wave period
*
*
ObservationsSignificant wave height

*

*

ArcticAntarctic

Anomaly correlation/
SEEPS(*)
RMS error/
Std. dev.of error(*)
Anomaly correlation/
SEEPS(*)
RMS error/
Std. dev.of error(*)
AnalysisGeopotential100


250


500


850

Mean sea level pressure

Temperature100


250


500


850


1000

2m temperature

Wind100


250


500


850


1000

10m wind

Relative
humidity
250


700
ObservationsGeopotential100


250


500


850

Temperature100


250


500


850

2m temperature



Wind100


250


500


850

10m wind



Relative
humidity
250


700

2m dew-point



Total cloud cover



24h precipitation
*
*

ENS


Extratropical
Northern
Hemisphere
Extratropical
Southern
Hemisphere
Tropics

EM RMS errorCRPSEM RMS errorCRPSEM RMS errorCRPS
AnalysisGeopotential100




250




500




850



Mean sea level pressure



Temperature100


250


500


850

Wind speed100


250


500


850

Relative
humidity
200


700

2m temperature

10m wind at sea

Significant wave height

Mean wave period
ObservationsGeopotential100




250




500




850



Temperature100


250


500


850

Wind speed100


250


500


850

Relative
humidity
200


700

2m temperature




2m dew-point




Total cloud cover




10m wind




24h precipitation




Significant wave height




EuropeNorthern AmericaEast Asia

EM RMS errorCRPSEM RMS errorCRPSEM RMS errorCRPS
AnalysisGeopotential100


250


500


850

Mean sea level pressure

Temperature100


250


500


850

Wind speed100


250


500


850

Relative
humidity
200


700

2m temperature
ObservationsGeopotential100


250


500


850

Temperature100


250


500


850

Wind speed100


250


500


850

Relative
humidity
200


700

2m temperature




2m dew-point




Total cloud cover




10m wind




24h precipitation




ArcticAntarctic

EM RMS errorCRPSEM RMS errorCRPS
AnalysisGeopotential100


250


500


850

Mean sea level pressure

Temperature100


250


500


850

Wind speed100


250


500


850

Relative
humidity
200


700

2m temperature
ObservationsGeopotential100


250


500


850

Temperature100


250


500


850

Wind speed100


250


500


850

Relative
humidity
200


700

2m temperature



2m dew-point



Total cloud cover



10m wind



24h precipitation


Symbol legend: for a given forecast step...
45r1 better than 43r3 statistically significant with 99.7% confidence
45r1 better than 43r3 statistically significant with 95% confidence
45r1 better than 43r3 statistically significant with 68% confidence
not really any difference between 43r3 and 45r1
45r1 worse than 43r3 statistically significant with 68% confidence
45r1 worse than 43r3 statistically significant with 95% confidence
45r1 worse than 43r3 statistically significant with 99.7% confidence