High resolution
Comparison of scores of IFS Cycle 43r1 (combination of research experiments and the current test suite) and IFS Cycle 41r2 (the current operational cycle) verified by the respective analyses or radiosonde and SYNOP observations at 00UTC for the period 12 UTC on 2 November 2015 to 00 UTC on 22 November 2016 (743 forecast runs).
| Anomaly correlation | RMS error/Std. dev. of error | SEEPS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | Against analysis | Geopotential | 100hPa | |||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Mean sea level pressure | ||||||
| Temperature | 100hPa | |||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Wind | 100hPa | |||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| Relative humidity | 250hPa | |||||
| 700hPa | ||||||
| Against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 2m temperature | ||||||
| Wind | 100hPa | |||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 10m wind | ||||||
| 2m dew-point | ||||||
| Total cloud cover | ||||||
| 24h precipitation | ||||||
| Extratropical Northern Hemisphere | Against analysis | Geopotential | 100hPa | |||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Mean sea level pressure | ||||||
| Temperature | 100hPa | |||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Wind | 100hPa | |||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 10m wind at sea | ||||||
| Significant wave height | ||||||
| Mean wave period | ||||||
| Relative humidity | 250hPa | |||||
| 700hPa | ||||||
| Against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 2m temperature | ||||||
| Wind | 100hPa | |||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 10m wind | ||||||
| 2m dew-point | ||||||
| Total cloud cover | ||||||
| 24h precipitation | ||||||
| Extratropical Southern Hemisphere | Against analysis | Geopotential | 100hPa | |||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Mean sea level pressure | ||||||
| Temperature | 100hPa | |||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Wind | 100hPa | |||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 10m wind at sea | ||||||
| Significant wave height | ||||||
| Mean wave period | ||||||
| Relative humidity | 250hPa | |||||
| 700hPa | ||||||
| Against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 2m temperature | ||||||
| Wind | 100hPa | |||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 10m wind | ||||||
| 2m dew-point | ||||||
| Total cloud cover | ||||||
| 24h precipitation | ||||||
| Tropics | Against analysis | Temperature | 100hPa | |||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Wind | 100hPa | |||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 10m wind at sea | ||||||
| Significant wave height | ||||||
| Mean wave period | ||||||
| Relative humidity | 250hPa | |||||
| 700hPa | ||||||
| Against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 2m temperature | ||||||
| Wind | 100hPa | |||||
| 250hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 10m wind | ||||||
| 2m dew-point | ||||||
| Total cloud cover | ||||||
| 24h precipitation |
Score card provides a quick visual overview over the performance of the CY43r1 scores compared to CY41r2. It is a simplified summary of verify error plots of various domains, scores, parameters etc.
Each error plot is converted into a sequence of symbols (e.g. ) where each symbol indicates for given time step whether or not the CY43r1 is significantly better or worse than the CY41r2.
Symbol legend: for a given forecast step... (d: score difference, s: confidence interval width)
CY43r1 better than CY41r2 statistically highly significant (the confidence bar above zero by more than its height )(d/s>3)
CY43r1 better than CY41r2 statistically significant (d/s≥1)
CY43r1 better than CY41r2, yet not statistically significant (d/s≥0.5)
not really any difference between CY41r2 and CY43r1
CY43r1 worse than CY41r2, yet not statistically significant (d/s≤-0.5)
CY43r1 worse than CY41r2 statistically significant (d/s≤-1)
CY43r1 worse than CY41r2 statistically highly significant (the confidence bar below zero by more than its height) (d/s<-3)