Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Mohamed
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1. Impact
Heavy rainfall was reported in Madeira between the 5th and 6th of June leading to flash floods and landslides. Fortunately no loss of life as was reported . Reports received from the GTS indicated daily totals exceeding 120mm. However precipitation reports from Institute of Meteorology (IPMA) highlighted total exceeding 350 mm. These high density reports are not shared on the GTS.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 3 June 00UTC to 7 June 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 2 June to 7 June 00UTC, every 24 hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 24-hour precipitation (5 June 00UTC - 6 June 00UTC) in observaions (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and o-suite HRES forecasts with different lead times. We should make zoomed in versions to see Madeira.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation on 5 June, from different initial dates.
The plots below shows EFI for 1-day integrated water vapour transport on 5 June, from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation (5 June 00UTC - 6 June 00UTC) for 0.25 degree box over Madeira. Mean of observations - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red, ENS control - purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker (red o suitem purple - e-suite). Ensemble median as black box and ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts. 48r1 e-suite is included in cyan (ENS distribution) and orange (HRES). The e-suite forecasts are shifted to the right in order to see overlapping forecasts.
