Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Esti, Ivan
1. Impact
On 9 February the cyclone Helios hit the countries around central Mediterranean, with severe rainfall. The system was named Helios, but was not considered to be a Medicane.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 7 February 00UTC to 11 February 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 6 February to 12 February 00UTC, every 24 hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations (first plot), analysis from concatenated 6-hour forecasts (2nd plot) and HRES forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid 9 February 00UTC - 10 February 00UTC, from different initial dates. The black box show the area around Malta.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 1-day precipitation 9 February, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation valid 9 February 00UTC - 10 February 00UTC for the box around Malta. Observation - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Ensemble median as black box and ensemble mean as black diamonds.
The plots below show cyclone features coloured after the maximum rainfall within 300 km, all valid 10 February 00UTC.
2 Comments
Alessio Canessa
https://www.meteoam.it/it/apprendimento/helios-diventa-un-ciclone-mediterraneo
Alessio Canessa
heavy snow abv 1400-1500m on Mount Etna