Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
In the second week of August another heatwave hit UK.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 for 9 to 15 August 00UTC, every 24 hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plot below shows the HRES 72-hour forecast (red) from 11 August for western London and three observation stations (black) within 0.5 degrees around London-Heathrow.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day temperature on 11-13 August in forecasts from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 3-day temperature on 11-13 August for western London. Obs (green hourglass), analysis (green circle), HRES (red circle) and ENS (blue box-and-whisker). Model climate (based on 1200 forecasts) in (red box-and-whisker) with the maximum as triangle.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show ensemble mean of weekly anomalies of 2-metre temperature 8-14 August, for different initial dates of extended-range forecasts.
