202206 - Heatwave - Western Europe

Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Esti

1. Impact

In mid-June Western Europe was hit by a heatwave, stretching from Spain to Germany. For example, in Biarritz (France) the temperatures reached 42.9C on 18 June.

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 16 June to 20 June.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

Forecast of the "galerna" wind gusts in the HRES (maps provided by Aemet Spain):

Forecast of the "galerna" 10 m wind in the HRES (maps provided by Aemet Spain):

The plots below show 2-metre temperature (left) and 10-metre wind speed (right) in Biarritz for observations (black), HRES (red) and ENS (cyan). The sea-side city experienced a "Galerne" on the afternoon, with the temperature dropping ~20 degrees in 2 hours with strong winds from the sea.

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for maximum temperature on 18 June in forecasts from different initial dates.

The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for maximum temperature in Biarritz on 18 June. Obs (green hourglass), analysis (green circle), HRES (red circle) and ENS (blue box-and-whisker). Model climate (based on 1200 forecasts) in (red box-and-whisker) with the maximum as triangle. The left plot shows the location sued and the values from the analysis.

The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for mean temperature over large parts of France (43N-48N, 1W-6E) on 18 June. Analysis (green circle), HRES (red circle) and ENS (blue box-and-whisker). Model climate (based on 1200 forecasts) in (red box-and-whisker) with the maximum as triangle. The left plot shows the box used for the average and the values from the analysis.

The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for mean temperature around Cordoba, Spain on 14-16 June. Analysis (green circle), HRES (red circle) and ENS (blue box-and-whisker). Model climate (based on 1200 forecasts) in (red box-and-whisker) with the maximum as triangle. The left plot shows the box used for the average and the values from the analysis.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show weekly 2-metre temperature anomalies for 13-19 June from different lead times. All forecasts (up to more than a month in advance) predicted a warm anomaly over the Iberian Peninsula.