Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Fernando, Linus
1. Impact
On 20 May some regions of Germany were affected by severe convection. The region of Paderborn (West Germany) was hit by a tornado (several videos were posted in the social media). At least 40 people were injured, a substantial damage in building in the wake of this significant event.
2. Description of the event
The plots below shows the analyses of z500 and T850 from 18 to 23 May. The event in focus here was on 20 May, but similar large-scale conditions appeared on 23 May with severe convection over France.
The animation below shows hourly images from Eumetsat RGB product. We can see several convective complexes emerging in the Benelux region and in Germany.
Unsaved_session_2022-05-20_10_00-2022-05-20_19_00.mp4
The distribution of the significant weather reports, in particular the tornado/hail/heavy rain, was mainly in western Germany. These reports support the radial velocity couplet identified by the radar (see below).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations (first plot) and HRES forecasts of precipitation valid 20 May 06UTC to 21 May 06UTC. The forecasts seems to have placed the frontal zone over northern Germany too far south, leading to an over-prediction of the rainfall in the outlined box (see scatter plot below).
Scatterplot of observations and 2-30h forecasts (second plot above).
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for CAPE valid on 20 May. The risk for convection was well captured in the medium-range.
