Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Tim, Ivan
1. Impact
On 18 February the windstorm Eunice passed over northern Europe and caused damages in Ireland, UK, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland. The storm was one of three named storms within a week hitting north-western Europe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Eunice
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour forecasts of precipitation from 17 February 00UTC to 20 February 00UTC, every 12 hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 24-hour maximum wind gusts on 18 February from observations (first plot) and HRES forecasts with different initial times.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour maximum wind gusts for 18 February.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour wind gusts near Reading on 18 February. Max observation (from RAF Odiham) in green, HRES in red, ENS CF in purple, ensemble distribution in blue and model climate distribution in red. Maximum in model climate (1200 fields) marked as triangle.
The plots below show the cyclone feature maps with maximum wind at 1 km on 18 February 12UTC marked with colored dots.
