Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ivan, Rebecca
1. Impact
On 22 February the tropical cyclone Emnati made landfall on Madagascar, on a similar location as TC Batsirai earlier in the same month.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show mslp from analysis and 6-hour precipitation forecasts from 21 February 12UTC to 24 February 00UTC.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plot below shows surface winds from a SAR image from Sentinel (left) and a 2-hour (middle) and 14-hour (right) HRES forecasts. The data is valid for 22 February 02UTC.
The plot below infrared images from a Meteosat channel 9 (left) and a 2-hour (middle) and 14-hour (right) HRES forecasts. The data is valid for 22 February 02UTC.
The plots below show the GPM IMERG 24-hour precipitation for 20 February (left), the HRES 24-hour precipitation at 1 day ahead (centre), and the difference between HRES and IMERG 24-hour precipitation (right)
The plots below show the GPM IMERG 24-hour precipitation for 22 February (left), the HRES 24-hour precipitation at 1 day ahead (centre), and the difference between HRES and IMERG 24-hour precipitation (right), followed by the same for 3 days ahead
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 22 February 00UTC (first plot) to 13 February 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 22 February 12UTC. HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).
The plots below show the ENS probability of exceeding 150mm total precip from 21st to 24th February (inclusive), produced by Calum on 21st February for the flood bulletins, and the IMERG precip totals indicating the area where precip exceeded 150mm over the same period.
