Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Ervin, Linus
1. Impact
A snow storm in Pakistan had caused a disaster near Islamabad on 6-8 January. Reports say about 1.2 - 1.5 metre of snow fell rather quickly onto the area that lead to the popular destination of Murree, which is a holiday spot in the mountains not far northest from Islamabad. Reports say the over 100.000 cars tried to reach the place during few days, which can be accessed only through a small road. The snowstorm hit the area and thousands got trapped on the road around Friday-Saturday.
It seem at least 22 people died, either from the car's fumes or the cold itself. The strong wind brought down some trees which blocked the road together with the huge amount of snow.
Here are two example news articles: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/08/heavy-snow-traps-vehicles-pakistan-resort-murree, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59927266.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour forecasts of precipitation from 5 January 00UTC to 9 January 00UTC, every 12 hour. Two pulses of high precipitation passed Murree (box centred on 34N, 73.5E), one on 5 January and one on 7-8 January. The evolution below will focus on the second pulse.
The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and T850 (shade) for 4 to 9 January 00UTC (every 24 hour). An upper-level trough moved from the west and brought a southerly flow towards the western Himalayas.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 3-day total precipitation 6-8 January.
The plots below show EFI and ESO for 3-day total snowfall 6-8 January. Murree (black box) is located at the start of the mountains where the precipitation fell as snow.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation valid 6-8 January centered on Murree (0.5x0.5 degree box). HRES –red, ENS CF – purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts, The black square marks the ensemble/climate median and diamond ensemble/climate mean.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below shows "analysis" precipitation and forecasts for weekly ensemble mean precipitation valid 3-9 January. The extended-range forecasts had an early signal for a wetter-than-normal period.
