Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Fernando,
1. Impact
On 14-16 November British Columbia in Canada was with by severe rainfall that caused flash floods.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-59324764
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and T850 (shade) from 11 November 00UTC to 17 November 00UTC, every 24 hour.
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts from 13 November 00UTC to 17 November 00UTC every 12h.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations from SYNOP (first plot) and HRES forecasts of 48-hour precipitation valid 14 November 00UTC - 16 November 00UTC, from different initial dates. The black box marks the southern part of Vancouver metropolitan. For longer lead times the precipitation was shifted to the north.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation 14-17 October, from different initial times.
The plots below show EFI for 3-day integrated water vapor flux 14-17 October, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 48-hour precipitation valid 14 November 00UTC - 16 November 00UTC for the 1x1 degree box south of Vancouver. Mean of obs - green, HRES –red, ENS - blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.
