Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
1. Impact
While south-eastern Turkey saw extremely hot temperatures (see 202108 - Heatwave - Mediterranean) and wild fires on the second week of August, the northern coast was hit by flooding, with more than 70 fatalities.
https://floodlist.com/asia/turkey-black-sea-floods-update-august-2021
https://floodlist.com/asia/turkey-floods-update-august-2021
2. Description of the event
Daily precipitation totals for most extreme stations in Turkey for 24-hour precipitation ending on 11 and 12 August:
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour forecasts of precipitation from 9 August 00UTC to 13 August 00UTC, every 12 hour.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show SYNOP observations (first plot) and HRES forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid 10 August 00UTC - 13 August 00UTC, from different initial dates. The black square in the forecast plots indicate location of Bozkurt on the Black Sea coast that got 292 mm (over 2 days). Unfortunately we do not have a good SYNOP coverage in the region.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation 10-12 August, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation valid 10 August 00UTC - 13 August 00UTC for Bozkurt. HRES –red, ENS CF – purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
72-hour precipitation from 10 August 00UTC for models participating in SEE-MHEWS-A. Aladin (left), ICON (middle) and NMMB (right). All models are initialised from ECMWF analysis.
