Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus


 


1. Impact

In January 2021 Singapore saw two major precipitation. The cases were reported in ECMWF User Forum: Severe Monsoon Surge in January over Singapore . This page shows evaluation for the second event on 8-10 January. The page for the first event can be found here: 202101 - Rainfall - Singapore Part 1

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour forecasts of precipitation from 7 January 00UTC to 11 January 00UTC, every 12 hour.





3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plots below show observations and HRES forecasts of 72-hour precipitation valid 8-10 January, from different initial dates. 

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation valid 8-10 January, from different initial times.

The plot below shows the evolution of the 3-day precipitation starting on 8 January, in the box outlined in the plots above. The plot includes HRES (red dot), ENS control (purple dot), ENS distribution (blue box-and-whisker) and model climate (red box-and-whisker). 




3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases


5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material
















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2 Comments

  1. NEA MSS

    Compared to 202101 - Rainfall - Singapore Part 1, we can see more confidence for the extreme events up to a week before based on the EFI and box-and-whisker. I wondered what was present that made it so confident.

    1. Linus Magnusson

      I agree, it is an interesting question!