Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Esti


 


1. Impact


2. Description of the event


3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES


3.3 ENS

Probabilities of exceeding >80 mm at different lead times: 24h, 48h, 72h, 96h, 120h, 144h, 168h


EFI for 24-h Precipitation, valid on day 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 10-15



EFI for Water vapour flux, valid on day 4,  7 and 10-15

3.4 Monthly forecasts

Extended range anomaly for precipitation, valid for the week 19-25 October and forecast for week 1, 1.5, 2 and 2.5



3.5 Comparison with other centres

HRES and HARMONIE-AROME maximum wind gusts for T+48h compared to observations




HRES and HARMONIE-AROME 24- precipitation for T+48h compared to observations



4. Experience from general performance/other cases


5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material

EFAS forecast on 19th October 2020 at 00 UTC run.