Status: Finalised Material from: Linus


 


1. Impact

Around 17 May south-eastern Europe experienced a heat-wave, with temperatures reaching above 40 degrees.

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES


3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for 2-metre maximum temperature on 17 May.

The plot below shows forecast evolution for 2-metre maximum temperature for Nicosia (Cyprus) on 17 May. Ensemble distribution (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate distribution (red box-and-whisker).

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plot below shows weekly temperature anomalies for 11-17 May in extended-range forecasts.

3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases


5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

  • Very good extended-range signal for the event

6. Additional material