Status: Finalised Material from: Linus


 


1. Impact

On 6-7 January south-eastern Europe and Greece in particular was hit by an intense low-pressure system bringing heavy precipitation and strong winds.

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts every 12h hour between 5 and 8 January.

The plots below show the analyses of z500 (contours) and t850 (shade) from 5 to 8 January.

3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plots below show observations of 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 6 January 00UTC to 7 January 00UTC (first plot) and HRES forecasts valid at the same period. The forecast plots also includes MSLP valid 6 January 12UTC.


3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 6 January.



3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases


5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material