Status: Finalised Material from: Linus
1. Impact
In the mid of November north-easternItaly and southern Austria was hit by heavy precipitation.
2. Description of the event
Accumulated precipitation from observations in the box 45.5N-47.5N, 12E-14E from 1 September (black, think) and daily accumulations (black, thin). Values from the observation climatology in grey. While October was drier than normal, November had several events of heavy precipitation, with the worst days were 15 and 17 November.
The plots below show the precipitation observations accumulated on 15 November (left) and 17 November (right).
The plots below show analyses of z500 and t850 from 12 to 18 November.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
Focusing on the event on 17 November, the plots below show observations (first plot) and HRES forecasts valid the same date but from different initial times. The mean of the observations in the box was 94.6 mm. The mean of the latest forecast for the observation locations was 76.6 mm and box average 66 mm.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation valid for 15-17 November. The event was well captured more than a week in advance.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show weekly anomalies for precipitation valid 11-18 November.
The plots below show the same as above but for MSLP.
