Status: Finalised Material from: Linus, Tim


 

1. Impact

On 16 October the extra-tropical extension of the tropical cyclone Ophelia hit south-western Ireland. The 10-minute mean wind reached of 31 m/s at Roches Point, off Cork, and gusts of up to 43 m/s over land. 3 people were killed by the storm.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/storm-ophelia-record-26m-wave-at-kinsale-gas-platform-off-south-coast-1.3262198?mode=amp

2. Description of the event

Here is a link to Met Éireann's official report on the storm, published one year on:

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2018/10/Ophelia-1.pdf

3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plots below show the 24-hour maximum wind gusts for 16 October and the MSLP valid at 12UTC on 16 October from HRES forecasts. The first plot shows observations of 24-hour maximum wind gusts.


3.3 ENS


The plots below show the tropical cyclone product for Ophelia.

The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 16 October.


The plot below shows the evolution of the forecasts for 24-hour maximum wind gusts on 16 October in Cork.



3.4 Monthly forecasts


3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases


5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

  • The risk well captured 6 days in advance
  • The magnitude of wind gusts over land well predicted

6. Additional material