Status: Finalised Material from: Linus


 


Picture

1. Impact

During the beginning of February large part of south-eastern Australia was hit by a heat wave.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/10/australias-heatwave-continues-with-record-temperatures-expected

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plot below shows the 2-metre temperature for stations around Sydney and HRES forecasts from 9  and 10 February 00z. The forecast from 9 February missed the peak in the temperature on 10 February.



3.3 ENS

The figure below shows the evolution of 2-metre temperature on 10 February (24-hour mean) from ENS (blue bar-and-whisker) and HRES (red dot).



3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plot below shows the analysis (top-left) and forecasts of 2-metre temperature anomalies for 6-12 February.




3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases


5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6. Additional material