Status: Finalised Material from: Linus


 



1. Impact




In the beginning of January severe and unseasonal rainfall hit southern Thailand, with daily rainfall reaching above 600 mm (5 January)  for the worst station. At least 21 people have been killed due to the rain. 




 2. Description of the event


The plots below shows 12-hour forecasts of rainfall and MSLP from 4 to 9 January.


Te plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation for day1 as a proxy for analysis. Please ignore the right panel in each figure.



3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plots below show 24-hour precipitation (00z-00z) from observations (left) and the latest HRES (right).


1 January

2 January

3 January

4 January

5 January

6 January

7 January

8 January

9 January

10 January


3.3 ENS

The plots below show the ensemble evolution for the area that was hit by the rainfall reaching 600 mm on 5 January (southern part).

The plots below show the ensemble evolution for the area that was hit by the rainfall around 200 mm on 9 January (central part).



3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show weekly precipitation anomalies for 2-8 January.


The plots below shows forecast for MJO and Howmuller of OLR. No MJO was present at the time of the event, but it showed up as a negative anomaly in OLR.



3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases


5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

  • Good prediction in extended and medium-range (compared to model climate)
  • Mixed performance in short-range


6. Additional material

 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus


 



1. Impact




In the beginning of January severe and unseasonal rainfall hit southern Thailand, with daily rainfall reaching above 600 mm (5 January)  for the worst station. At least 21 people have been killed due to the rain. 




 2. Description of the event


The plots below shows 12-hour forecasts of rainfall and MSLP from 4 to 9 January.


Te plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation for day1 as a proxy for analysis. Please ignore the right panel in each figure.



3. Predictability

  

3.1 Data assimilation

 

3.2 HRES

The plots below show 24-hour precipitation (00z-00z) from observations (left) and the latest HRES (right).


1 January

2 January

3 January

4 January

5 January

6 January

7 January

8 January

9 January

10 January


3.3 ENS

The plots below show the ensemble evolution for the area that was hit by the rainfall reaching 600 mm on 5 January (southern part).

The plots below show the ensemble evolution for the area that was hit by the rainfall around 200 mm on 9 January (central part).



3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show weekly precipitation anomalies for 2-8 January.


The plots below shows forecast for MJO and Howmuller of OLR. No MJO was present at the time of the event, but it showed up as a negative anomaly in OLR.



3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Experience from general performance/other cases


5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

  • Good prediction in extended and medium-range (compared to model climate)
  • Mixed performance in short-range


6. Additional material