Status: Finalised Material from: Linus
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1. Impact
On 18 December northern U.S experienced extreme cold temperatures.
2. Description of the event
The plot below shows temperature observations from around Minneapolis for 18 December 12z from www.ogimet.com .
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plot below shows 2-metre temperature for Minneapolis from observations (black), HRES (red) and Control forecast (blue) from 17 December 00z (solid) and 18 December 00z (dashed).
2-metre temperature for Minneapolis from observations (black), HRES (red) for the forecast from 12 December.
The plot below shows temperature diagnostics for Minneapolis.
The plot below shows a vertical temperature profile for Minneapolis for 18 Dec+12h.
3.3 ENS
The plot below shows the evolution of 2-metre temperature forecasts for Minneapolis on 18 December 12z for ENS (blue) and HRES (red), with the model climate in red.
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 2-metre temperature on 18 December.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below shows verification of monthly forecasts of 2-metre temperature valid 12-18 December.