Status:Finalised Material from: Linus, Fernando, Ervin
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/01/26/sc/
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/01/22/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news.php?id=165599
2. Description of the event
The plots below show the EFI for 2-metre temperature for the first forecast day as a proxy of the analysis for 20 to 26 January. The anomalous cold weather started in southern Russia around 21 January and propagated southward ans was most intense 23-24 January in China.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the EFI for 2-metre temperature valid 22-25 January.
The plot below shows the evolution of ensemble forecasts of 850 hPa temperature for Hong Kong valid 23-24 January.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plot below shows the EFI for 2t from Thursday's week 1 forecast on the left and the CDFs of 2t anomalies over the pink box
for all forecasts valid for the week starting on 18 January. Just the latest 2 forecasts have the cold anomaly in place. The analysis
of 2t anomalies is also provided.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Extreme forecasts at least 1 week in advance
- Jumpy forecasts for 2-metre temperature (reported fromXiaohua Yang, DMI) see