Status:Finalised Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/12/23/sc/
Picture
1. Impact
During the second half of December Malaysia and Thailand were hit by heavy rainfall. The following flooding is said to be the worst for decades.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30609549
During the same period also Sri Lanka was affected by heavy rainfall.
2. Description of the event
The plot below shows the accumulated precipitation at Kuantan Airport during December. The mean precipitation for the month is around 600 mm. For 16 to 26 December the station got 1400 mm.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below shows HRES forecasts and observations of 24-hour precipitation.
HRES precipitation verification
It looks like the model miss the precipitation over land.
3.3 ENS
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below shows weekly anomalies of rainfall for 15-21 December (left) and 22-28 December (right). The worst affected region is located in the upper-right corner of the plotted domain. The both weeks, a wet anomaly is present 2 weeks before.
The plots below shows MJO forecast from 4, 11 and 18 December. The rainfall seems to be connected to the onset of the MJO.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
3.6 GLOFAS
Forecast from 6 to 14 December:
Forecast from 15 to 23 December:
Forecast from 24 to 29 December:
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Good early signal for anomalous rainfall
- Early signal in Glofas
- The signal got weaker after the rainfall, why?