201411 - Rainfall - Morocco

Status:Finalised Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

Picture

1. Impact

During the last weeks of November two major rainfall hit Morocco. The first occurred around the 22 November and the second around 28 November. During the first episode more than 30 people were killed.

This investigation will focus on the second episode.

2. Description of the event

The plot below shows the analysis for z500 and t850 for 12z on 28 November. A cut-off low east of Portugal brought moist air towards the Moroccan coast and the Canary Islands.

The plot below shows the observed precipitation 27 November 06z to 28 November 06z. Agadir (60252) reported 117 mm and Lanzarote Airport (60040) 132 mm.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show HRES precipitation forecasts (shade) valid 27 November 06z to 28 November 06z and MSLP forecasts valid 27 November 18UTC.

HRES precipitation and MSLP forecasts

1. 28 Nov 00z	2. 27 Nov 00z	3. 26 Nov 00z	4. 25 Nov 00z

5. 24 Nov 00z	6. 23 Nov 00z	7. 22 Nov 00z	8. 21 Nov 00z

9. 20 Nov 00z

3.3 ENS

The EFI forecast for precipitation for the period 20-24 November 2014.

The plot below shows the CDF for precipitation in Agadir, valid for 28 November. During this 24-hour period 150 mm was measured at Agadir Airport (station 60252).

3.4 Monthly forecasts

Verification of weekly anomalies of precipitation (left) and MSLP (right). The extension of the trough towards the Iberian peninsula was captured in the forecast from 20 November.