Status:Finalised Material from: Linus, Mohamed, Fernando, Ivan
Picture
1. Impact
During the first week of November the north-central Mediterranean coast and the southern Alps were hit by intense rainfall and showfall (in the Alps). The situation was caused by a developing trough. Also Morocco was affected by heay rain (see daily reports above).
2. Description of the event
Analysis of z500 and t850
The plots above show analyses of z500 and t850 from 3 October to 9 October. During this period a sharp trough developed and reached northern Africa, bringing a warm and moist stream of air towards the Mediterranean coast and the Alps.
24-hour observed precipitation (06-06)
The plots above show the 24-hour precipitation accumulation (ending of the labelled time). During the accumulation ending 4 November 06UTC the south central of France got extreme rainfall. The day after the area around Nice was worst affected together with the south-western part of the Alps and the are around Genua. On 6 November the south Tyrol got a lot of snow and on 7 October Slovenia was worst affected together with the area north of Neapel.
EFAS Ongoing alerts
The plots above show the ongoing alert levels from EFAS where yellow is 2-5 years return period, red 5-20 and purple >20 years.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
For the rainfall on 3 Nov 06UTC to 4 Nov 06UTC, the plots below show forecast from operational HRES (cy40r1), e-suite HRES (cy41r1) and experiment with TC1279 (8km) and cycle 41r1. The amount of rain the the worst affected area in France increased with about 20% in the e-suite as expected from the changes in cloud physics. With the increased resolution we find a significant increase for this case.
3.3 ENS
EFI for 3-day precipitation
3.4 Monthly forecasts
Weekly precipitation anomaly
Weekly MSLP anomaly
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- The flow situation has similarities with 201401 - Rainfall (+ snowfall) - Italy, Croatia, Serbia, Austria