Hello,
I have used the 'ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1979 to present' monthly averaged precipitation data for some calculations and would like to include the uncertainty of the dataset in my analysis. The dataset provides me with the product 'monthly averaged ensemble members', but I am unsure how to interpret that data.
(Does this mean that the real precipitation data could differ from the precipitation in the original dataset according to the values in the ensemble dataset? Basically: tp[real] = tp[original]+-tp[ensemble]? But after that, I still have 10 different variables for every precipitation data point, because of the 10 ensemble members. Is my assumption correct that every ensemble member is basically an uncertainty estimation based on slightly different input data? And if so, would I need to take into account every single one for my precipitation data or are there ones, which are obsolet for this?)
Edit: After reviewing the data some more I rather think now that the 10 ensemble members show 10 different outcomes for the reanalyzed precipitation data based on different inputs. Is that correct?
Thanks in advance.
