1. Forecast system version

Identifier code: cwao_CanCM4i

First operational forecast run: 31 July 2019

2. Configuration of the forecast model

Is the model coupled to an ocean model?   Yes

Coupling frequency:  24 hours

2.1 Atmosphere and land surface

ModelCanAM4
Horizontal resolution and gridT63 (~2.8° lat/lon)
Atmosphere vertical resolution35 hybrid levels
Top of atmosphere1 hPa
Soil levels (layers)

3 

Layer 1: 0-10 cm
Layer 2: 10-35 cm
Layer 3: 35-410 cm
 

Time step15 minutes

Detailed documentation:

von SalzenK., and Coauthors2013The Canadian fourth generation atmospheric global climate model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of physical processesAtmos. -Ocean51104125https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2012.755610 

2.2 Ocean and cryosphere

Ocean modelCanOM4
Horizontal resolution~1.4° (lon), ~0.94° (lat)
Vertical resolution40 levels with ~10m spacing near surface 
Time step20 minutes
Sea ice modelCanICE
Sea ice model resolution~2.8° lat/lon
Sea ice model levels1
Wave modelN/A
Wave model resolutionN/A

Detailed documentation:

MerryfieldW. J., and Coauthors2013The Canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system. Part I: Models and initializationMon. Wea. Rev.14129102945https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00216.1

3. Initialization and initial condition (IC) perturbations

3.1 Atmosphere and land


HindcastForecast
Atmosphere initialization
ERA-InterimECCC GDPS analysis
Atmosphere IC perturbationsEnsemble of coupled assimilation runs begun from different initial conditions.Ensemble of coupled assimilation runs begun from different initial conditions.

Land Initialization

Land component forced by assimilating atmosphere.Land component forced by assimilating atmosphere.
Land IC perturbationsEach ensemble member forced by slightly different atmospheric states constrained by ERA-InterimEach ensemble member forced by slightly different atmospheric states constrained by GDPS analysis
Soil moisture initializationSoil moisture forced by assimilating atmosphere.Soil moisture forced by assimilating atmosphere.
Snow initializationSnow forced by assimilating atmosphere.Snow forced by assimilating atmosphere.
Unperturbed control forecast?No (all ensemble members contain statistically equivalent perturbations).No (all ensemble members contain statistically equivalent perturbations).

Data assimilation method for control analysis: 

Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) constrained by (re)analysis 6-hourly temperature, specific humidity and horizontal wind components, modified by inserting only 1/4 of increment on spatial scales >~1000 km.

Horizontal and vertical resolution of perturbations:  

Perturbations are primarily on spatial scales <1000 km, vertical structure not directly specified.

Perturbations in +/- pairs: 

No, all perturbations represent random samples from a distribution.

Detailed documentation:

MerryfieldW. J., and Coauthors2013The Canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system. Part I: Models and initializationMon. Wea. Rev.14129102945https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00216.1

Sospedra-Alfonso, R., L. Mudryk, W. J. Merryfield, and C. Derksen, 2016: Representation of snow in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System: Part I. Initialization.J. Hydrometeor., 17, 14671488, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0223.1

3.2 Ocean and cryosphere


HindcastForecast
Ocean initialization
  • SST nudged to OISSTv2 (ERSSTv3 before Nov 1981) with 3 day time constant
  • Sea ice concentration nudged to merged HadISST2.2 and Canadian Ice Service chart data with 3 day time constant
  • Sea ice thickness nudged to Dirkson et al. (2017) SMv3 statistical model with 3 day time constant
  • Subsurface potential temperature: offline assimilation of ORAp5 reanalysis with salinity adjustments to preserve static stability
  • SST nudged to ECCC GDPS SST analysis with 3 day time constant
  • Sea ice concentration nudged to merged HadISST2.2 and Canadian Ice Service chart data with 3 day time constant
  • Sea ice thickness nudged to Dirkson et al. (2017) SMv3 statistical model with 3 day time constant
  • Subsurface potential temperature: offline assimilation of ECCC GIOPS analysis with salinity adjustments to preserve static stability
Ocean IC perturbationsPerturbations due to forcing of ocean surface by different realizations of assimilating atmosphere in coupled runs.Perturbations due to forcing of ocean surface by different realizations of assimilating atmosphere in coupled runs.
Unperturbed control forecast?NoNo

Detailed documentation:

Dirkson, A., W. J. Merryfield, and A. Monahan, 2017: Impacts of sea ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions. J. Climate, 30, 10011017, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0437.1

MerryfieldW. J., and Coauthors2013The Canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system. Part I: Models and initializationMon. Wea. Rev.14129102945https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00216.1

Lin, H., Merryfield, W. J., Muncaster, R., Smith, G. C., Markovic, M., Dupont, F., Roy, F., Lemieux, J.-F., Dirkson, A., Kharin, V. V., and Lee, W. S., 2020: The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System Version 2 (CanSIPSv2), Weather and Forecasting, 35, 1317–1343, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0259.1 

4. Model Uncertainties perturbations:

Model dynamics perturbationsNo
Model physics perturbationsNo

If there is a control forecast, is it perturbed?

No control forecast

Detailed documentation: 

5. Forecast system and hindcasts

Forecast frequency12-month forecast is produced once per month. (Hindcasts are initialized on the first day of each month, forecasts on the last day of previous month.)
Forecast ensemble size10
Hindcast years1980-2010
Hindcast ensemble size10
On-the-fly or static hindcast set?static

6. Other relevant information

Radiative forcing is according to the CMIP5 historical specifications up to 2005, and the RCP 4.5 scenario thereafter. An exception is that CMIP5 volcanic stratospheric aerosol forcing at the start of the forecast decays with a time constant of 1 year.

7. Where to find more information

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html

https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=seasonal-forecasts 

https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=cansips-technical-notes