This dataset provides modelled daily fire danger time series forced with seasonal meteorological reforecasts. This data set provides long range prediction of meteorological conditions favourable to the start, spread and sustainability of fires. The fire danger metrics provided are part of a vast dataset produced by the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) for the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) and the Global Wildfire Information System, (GWIS). The European Forest Fire Information System incorporates the fire danger indices for three different models developed in Canada, United States and Australia.
This dataset was produced by forcing the GEFF fire forecast model with seasonal meteorological ensemble reforecasts. Reforecasts are forecasts run over past dates and are typically used to assess the skill of a forecast system or to develop tools for statistical error correction of the forecasts. The reforecasts are initialised on the first of each month with a lead time of 215 days at 24-hour time steps. The forcing meteorological data are seasonal reforecasts from the European Centre of Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), consisting of 25 ensemble members up until December 2016, and after that 51 members. The temporal resolution is daily forecasts initialised once a month over the past period 1981-2022. The selected data records in this data set will be extended with time as SEAS5 forcing data become available. This is however not a real time service so we foreseen to upload new forecasts with a delay of 1 to 2 months from when they become available on the EFFIS platform. Companion datasets, also available through the Climate Data Store (CDS), are historical record of fire danger from 1940 to today calculated using ERA5 reanalysis dataset (see Related data)
This dataset is produced by ECMWF in its role of the computational centre for fire danger forecast of the CEMS, on behalf of the Joint Research Centre which is the managing entity of the service.