Hydrological Products

^: associated daily time series available through the Copernicus Climate Change Climate Data Store 30 days after issue of the forecast


Product name

Description

(established over forecast horizon)

Outputs

Forecasting horizon

Forecast Model

Medium-range

COSMO > 20-year RP

Number of COSMO-LEPS based forecasts exceeding the EFAS 20-year return period threshold. Only shown for points with 1-year return period threshold exceeding 20m3/s.

Map

5.5 days

COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain)

(20)

Medium-range

COSMO >5-year RP

Number of COSMO-LEPS based forecasts exceeding the EFAS 5-year return period threshold. Only shown for points with 1-year return period threshold exceeding 20m3/s.

Map

5.5 days

COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain)

(20)

Medium-range

Det. DWD

Return period exceedance map showing the highest return period exceedance within the forecast range based on the deterministic DWD forecast. Only shown for points with 1-year return period threshold exceeding 20m3/s.

Map

7 days

DWD-DET (1)

Medium-range

Det. ECMWF

Return period exceedance map showing the highest return period exceedance within the forecast range based on the deterministic ECMWF forecast. Only shown for points with 1-year return period threshold exceeding 20m3/s.

Map

10 days

DWD-DET (1)

Medium-range

ECMWF-ENS >20-year RP

Number of ECMWF-ENS based forecasts exceeding the EFAS 20-year return period threshold. Only shown for points with 1-year return period threshold exceeding 20m3/s. 

 

Map

10 days

ECMWF-ENS (51)

Medium-range

ECMWF-ENS >5-year RP

Number of ECMWF-ENS based forecasts exceeding the EFAS 5-year return period threshold. Only shown for points with 1-year return period threshold exceeding 20m3/s.

 

Map

10 days

ECMWF-ENS (51)

Seasonal range

Seasonal outlook^

River flow anomaly and its probability of occurrence for the next eight weeks, aggregated over regions. The anomaly is calculated from the current seasonal hydrometeorological forecast, which is produced by forcing the LISFLOOD model with the 51 members ensemble of the ECMWF System 5 seasonal forecast. The thresholds for high and low probability are with respect to the 90th and 10th percentiles of the simulated discharge from a 29-year model climatology run (1991-2019). The seasonal forecast outlook plots are updated on a weekly basis with the latest weekly averaged water balance. A new seasonal forecast outlook (map and plots) is generated at the beginning of each month when the new forecast becomes available (usually on the 8th of the month).

 

Map

Graph of weekly averaged hydrograph (box-plots)

8 weeks

SEAS5 (51)

Sub-seasonal range

Sub-seasonal outlook

River flow anomaly and its probability of occurrence for the next six weeks, aggregated over regions. The anomaly is calculated from the current sub-seasonal hydrometeorological forecast, which is produced by forcing the LISFLOOD model with the 51 members ensemble of the ECMWF extended-range ensemble forecast up to 46 days. The thresholds for high and low probability are with respect to the 90th and 10th percentiles of the simulated discharge from a 29-year model climatology run (1991-2019). A new sub-seasonal forecast outlook (maps and plots) is generated every day from 27 June 2023 and twice weekly, each Monday and Thursday, beforehand.

Map

Graph of weekly averaged hydrograph (box-plots)

6 weeks

ECMWF-ENS (101 members, of which the first 51 are used in EFAS sub-seasonal)