GloFAS forecast skill is summarised in the interactive "Forecast skill" layer under the "Evaluation" tab on the GloFAS web map viewer.

Headline forecast skill score 

The headline ensemble forecast skill score is the maximum lead time (in days), up to 30-days ahead, in which the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) is greater than a value of 0.5, when compared to a persistence or climatology benchmark forecast. It is provided for all GloFAS web reporting points. Details on the method can be found in GloFAS forecast skill and full results across all GloFAS diagnostic river points for the current model version: GloFAS v2.2 forecast skill.

The headline score is provided as colour-coded map where stations with darker colours have high skill at longer lead times. The category "0", marked as light pink circles, represents stations that have forecast skill lower than the 0.5 threshold for one day lead time or more.

Note: CRPSS < 0.5 does not mean that the forecast has no skill at that station. This is only true (against the chosen benchmark forecasts; here persistence and climatology) when the CRPSS ≤ 0.

An explanation of the persistence and climatology benchmarks can be viewed in GloFAS forecast skill.

Pop-out graphs

Time-series skill plot showing CRPS and resulting CRPSS.