Flood Summary  Products

 

Product name

Description

(established over forecast horizon)

Outputs

Forecasting horizon

Forecast model

Medium-range

Flood Probability <48h

Probability of forecasts exceeding the EFAS 5-year return period threshold. Forecasting range 0-48 hours. 


Map

10 days

ECMWF-ENS (51)

COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20)

ECMWF-DET (1)

DWD-DET (1)

Medium-range

Flood Probability >48h

Probability of forecasts exceeding the EFAS 5-year return period threshold. Forecasting range 2 -10 days.

 

Map

10 days

ECMWF-ENS (51)

COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20)

ECMWF-DET (1)

DWD-DET (1)

Medium-rangeEFAS Flood Probability Persistence

Persistence probability (average of last 2 runs) of forecasts exceeding the EFAS 2-, 5-, and 20-year return period thresholds.

Map10 days

ECMWF-ENS (51)

COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20)

ECMWF-DET (1)

DWD-DET (1)

 

National Flood Monitoring

Map


NA

Medium-range

Rapid Flood Mapping

Estimated flood extent at 100m resolution based on forecasted flood magnitude and not considering the role of flood defences. Note: If EFAS doesn’t forecast significant flood impact the layer will be empty. (More information).

Map

10 days

ECMWF-ENS (51)

COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20)

Medium-range

Rapid Impact Assessment

Potential impact of floods on population, land use (agriculture, urban) and infrastructures (major roads). Impacts are based on the rapid flood mapping layer (above) and aggregated over NUTS regions. The level of flood risk is derived from the combination of expected impacts and likelihood. Note: If EFAS doesn't forecast significant flood impact the layer will be empty. (More information).

 

Map

Table of impact statistics

10 days

ECMWF-ENS (51)

COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20)

Medium-range 

Reporting Points^

Reporting Points where forecast outputs are available. Yellow, Red and purple squares highlight stations where the flow is forecasted to exceed respectively the EFAS 2, 5 and 20-year return period thresholds. Dark outlines indicate a threshold exceedance within the next two days. The labels show the ECMWF-ENS (left) and COSMO-LEPS (right) forecast probabilities and the forecast probability tendency over the last 3 forecasts (arrows). Grey (blue) squares are stations where (real-time post-processed) forecast hydrographs are available. For these points, yellow, red or purple outlines signify that the flow is forecasted to exceed the EFAS return period thresholds, but they do not meet the criteria to be flood reporting points. (More information).

Map

Graph of ensemble hydrograph (in return period scale) for each reporting point

Graphs of ensemble upstream rainfall, snow melt and temperature

Graphs of overview in forecast signal

Graph of overview of forecast persistence

10 days

ECMWF-ENS (51)

COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20)

ECMWF-DET (1)

DWD-DET (1)

Medium-range

Social Media Activity Analysis

Social Media Activity Analysis - Tweets

The layer aggregates tweets about floods in a specific area. Data collection is triggered on the basis of weather forecasts. Each tweet's text likelihood of being about a flood is classified using ML models (scale 0 to 1). Each tweet is geotagged using either the location mentioned in its text or the coordinates of the tweet itself. If the location extracted is out of the administrative areas for which the collection is triggered, the tweet will be discarded from further analysis. Geotagged tweets are grouped into 3 categories, low (flood relevance prob < 0.2) - mid (0.2-0.8) - high (>0.8) for each area. According to the ratio between number of tweets in 'mid' bucket and 'high' bucket (mandatory more than 10 in any case) the administrative area is 'colored' in grey (low>1), orange (high>5 X mid) or red (high>9 X mid). Finally, for regions in red or orange, a script extracts the 5 most representative tweets. The layer is updated every 30 minutes

Map

Graph 

TodayNA
Medium-range

 

 

 

Threshold level exceedance ongoing

Reporting points where maximum discharge is expected today (within the next 1-2 days; 3-5 days; >5 days). Roman numbers denote when exactly maximum discharge is expected. Colour denotes the highest alert level expected by a certain forecast.

 

Map






Today,

1-2 days;

3-5 days;

5-10 days






ECMWF-ENS (51)

COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20)

ECMWF-DET (1)

DWD-DET (1)

Threshold level exceedance 1-2 days

Threshold level exceedance 3-5 days

Threshold level exceedance >5 days