Flood Summary Products
| Product name | Description (established over forecast horizon) | Outputs | Forecasting horizon | Forecast model |
Medium-range | Probability of forecasts exceeding the EFAS 5-year return period threshold. Forecasting range 0-48 hours. | Map | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) ECMWF-DET (1) DWD-DET (1) | |
Medium-range | Probability of forecasts exceeding the EFAS 5-year return period threshold. Forecasting range 2 -10 days.
| Map | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) ECMWF-DET (1) DWD-DET (1) | |
Medium-range | EFAS Flood Probability Persistence | Persistence probability (average of last 2 runs) of forecasts exceeding the EFAS 2-, 5-, and 20-year return period thresholds. | Map | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) ECMWF-DET (1) DWD-DET (1) |
| National Flood Monitoring | Map | NA | ||
Medium-range | Estimated flood extent at 100m resolution based on forecasted flood magnitude and not considering the role of flood defences. Note: If EFAS doesn’t forecast significant flood impact the layer will be empty. (More information). | Map | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) | |
Medium-range | Potential impact of floods on population, land use (agriculture, urban) and infrastructures (major roads). Impacts are based on the rapid flood mapping layer (above) and aggregated over NUTS regions. The level of flood risk is derived from the combination of expected impacts and likelihood. Note: If EFAS doesn't forecast significant flood impact the layer will be empty. (More information).
| Map Table of impact statistics | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) | |
Medium-range | Reporting Points where forecast outputs are available. Yellow, Red and purple squares highlight stations where the flow is forecasted to exceed respectively the EFAS 2, 5 and 20-year return period thresholds. Dark outlines indicate a threshold exceedance within the next two days. The labels show the ECMWF-ENS (left) and COSMO-LEPS (right) forecast probabilities and the forecast probability tendency over the last 3 forecasts (arrows). Grey (blue) squares are stations where (real-time post-processed) forecast hydrographs are available. For these points, yellow, red or purple outlines signify that the flow is forecasted to exceed the EFAS return period thresholds, but they do not meet the criteria to be flood reporting points. (More information). | Map Graph of ensemble hydrograph (in return period scale) for each reporting point Graphs of ensemble upstream rainfall, snow melt and temperature Graphs of overview in forecast signal Graph of overview of forecast persistence | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) ECMWF-DET (1) DWD-DET (1) | |
Medium-range | The layer aggregates tweets about floods in a specific area. Data collection is triggered on the basis of weather forecasts. Each tweet's text likelihood of being about a flood is classified using ML models (scale 0 to 1). Each tweet is geotagged using either the location mentioned in its text or the coordinates of the tweet itself. If the location extracted is out of the administrative areas for which the collection is triggered, the tweet will be discarded from further analysis. Geotagged tweets are grouped into 3 categories, low (flood relevance prob < 0.2) - mid (0.2-0.8) - high (>0.8) for each area. According to the ratio between number of tweets in 'mid' bucket and 'high' bucket (mandatory more than 10 in any case) the administrative area is 'colored' in grey (low>1), orange (high>5 X mid) or red (high>9 X mid). Finally, for regions in red or orange, a script extracts the 5 most representative tweets. The layer is updated every 30 minutes | Map Graph | Today | NA | |
Medium-range
| Threshold level exceedance ongoing | Reporting points where maximum discharge is expected today (within the next 1-2 days; 3-5 days; >5 days). Roman numbers denote when exactly maximum discharge is expected. Colour denotes the highest alert level expected by a certain forecast.
| Map | Today, 1-2 days; 3-5 days; 5-10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) ECMWF-DET (1) DWD-DET (1) |