Evaluation  Products 

 

Product name

Description

(established over forecast horizon)

Outputs

Forecasting horizon

Forecast Model

 Historical

Medium-range forecast skill

Maximum lead time (in days) when EFAS medium-range river discharge forecast skill (CRPSS) is greater than 0.5, evaluated against a persistence benchmark forecast (6hr river discharge value persisted from previous time step). Detailed results are shown when clicking on individual stations.

 


Map

Forecast metrics graphs

10 days

ECMWF-ENS reforecasts (11)

Historical

Model Performance - Catchments

Modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) for calibration stations. The KGE ranges from –Inf to 1, with a perfect value of 1. KGE refers to historical data and calibration periods. Detailed results are shown when clicking on corresponding stations in the 'Model Performance - Points' layer. Also shown are catchments where the KGE falls below 0.2, but correlation is above 0.6. These are catchments with large bias, but still have useful information about flood timing.

Map

Summary catchment overviews

NA

NA

Historical

Model Performance - Points

Modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) for calibration stations. The KGE ranges from –Inf to 1, with a perfect value of 1. KGE refers to historical data and calibration periods. Detailed results are shown when clicking on individual stations.

 

Map

NA

NA