The CEMS-Flood medium-range (EFAS) and 30days (GloFAS) flood forecasts provide an overview of flood probability over the coming 10 (EFAS) or 30 days (GloFAS). They are created by comparing the CEMS-Flood forecast simulations with CEMS-Flood flood threshold levels. These flood threshold levels are calculated for every grid cell, based on a discharge time series simulated by the operational LISFLOOD hydrological model from observed (EFAS) and proxy observed (GloFAS) meteorological data.
Results are shown as the 'Reporting Points' summary layer in each dedicated EFAS and GloFAS Information System, and as associated products (see EFAS medium-range forecast products and GloFAS medium-range forecast products).
Additionally, the river discharge medium-range (EFAS) and 30 days (GloFAS) forecasts are also provided as time series through the Copernicus Climate Data Store and other means, described in the CEMS-Flood Data Access pages.
Additional processing are undertaken on CEMS-Flood medium-range forecasts:
- Estimation of the potential level of impact caused by the floodings, for both EFAS and GloFAS.
- For stations with river discharge observation available in near-real time, a statistical post-processing to correct the forecasts, for EFAS only
Note there are restrictions regarding accessibility to EFAS medium-range forecasting described in the EFAS-IS dedicated pages.