Hi. I'm developing a tool that uses Climate Data Store data to predict climate change impacts in some locations in Spain.
I use 12 variables and all of them have logical results, unless wildfire risk, using the Fire Danger Indicators dataset. I tried to use both FWI and number of days very high danger with three different models and the results that I obtain do not have the upward trend that your application has (https://climate.copernicus.eu/fire-weather-index).
In my results, there are several inconsistencies comparing to your application. Usually the figures for 2040 with rcp 8.5 are lower than 4.5 and in some cases even lower than 2.6. In most cases and for all rcp, the figures are increasing until 2050 and in 2065 they always decrease.
The temporal horizons are calculated doing an average value with the 5 previous and 5 subsequent years.
I have checked my code many times and cannot see any mistake. So my question is:
- Is it common to have these results? (maybe the variable evaluates different indicators such as wind or moisture and the trend is not linnear or upward everywhere)
- Can the data be not OK for some reason?
- Or do I have a mistake in my code at 100%?
Thank you very much
