Contributors: A. Troccoli (WEMC), L. Sanger (WEMC), C. Goodess (WEMC), J. Ogonji (WEMC), L. Dubus (WEMC), R. Vautard F Pons (CEA), X. Jin (CEA), G. Levavasseur (CEA), R. Legrand (MF), L. Grigis (MF), S. Martinoni-Lapierre (MF), C. Viel (MF), S. Parey (EDF), B. Oueslati (EDF), Y-M. Saint-Drenan (ASSOCIATION POUR LA RECHERCHE ET LE DEVELOPPEMENT DES METHODES ET PROCESSUS INDUSTRIELS, ARMINES, FRANCE), J. Mendes (MO), J. Osborne (MO), G.Guentchev (MO)

Table of Contents

1. General

1.1. Description

Hydropower generation is split in 2 components:

  1. Hydropower Run-of-River (HRO): generation from run-of-river units
  2. Hydropower Reservoir (HRE): generation from units with reservoirs


HRO and HRE generation are not available in all EU countries. A selection was made amongst the countries with a significant installed hydropower capacity either from run-of-river and/or reservoirs. Individual models were built for these countries, using Random Forest Models (RF), and ERA5 data as climate inputs, as NUTS0 averages. The models are built using data from the ENSTO-E Transparency Platform, over the period 2015–2019.
HRO and HRE are available for three streams:

Historical: This dataset uses climate predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis and retrieved from the CDS and averaged at NUTS0 (country). No bias adjustment has been applied.

Seasonal Forecasts: This dataset uses climate predictors from ECMWF System 5, Météo-France ARPEGE System 7 and Met Office GloSEA5 System 14. Seasonal Forecasts are retrieved from the CDS and are subsequently bias adjusted via quantile mapping. The forecast datasets are updated
monthly when the raw forecast of each system is available and averaged for NUTS0 (country).

Projection: This dataset uses climate predictors 11 regional climate model (RCM)/global climate model (GCM) combinations for the EURO-CORDEX project (Table 1) and for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), with RCP2.6 also added for two of the RCM/GCM combinations. Historical forcing is used from 1979-2005, and RCP forcing from 2006-2100. The original EURO-CORDEX simulations are retrieved from the producers (some were already available on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) portal) and are subsequently bias adjusted by applying the Cumulative Distribution Function transform (CDFt) method. The gridded 0.25°
latitude/longitude data are averaged at NUTS0 (country).

1.2. Units

HRE and HRO are provided in daily energy units (MWh), labelled as NRG in the output files. They are also provided as daily mean generated power (units=MW), labelled as PWR in the output files. Daily mean power = daily energy / 24 (hours). Capacity factor (unitless) the ratio between daily mean power and installed capacity, will also be provided, labelled as CFR in the output files.

Data will eventually be available via the C3S Energy/CDS demonstrator.

1.4. Data format

NUTS0 are available as CSV files.

1.5. Keywords

Hydropower Run-of-River (HRO) and Hydropower Reservoir (HRE)
Hydropower, Run-of-River, Reservoirs, Capacity Factor, Power, Energy, ENTSO-E, Random Forests.

1.6. Contact

copernicus-support@ecmwf.int

2. Dataset coverage

2.1. Geographic area

European countries within the C3S Energy domain is: 26.5° N to 72.5° N by 22.0° W to 45.5° E. for which HRO and HRE generation data are available (see Table 2).

Table 1: Hydropower data availability.

Country

Country Code

HRO

HRE

Austria

AT

P

P

Switzerland

CH

P

P

Germany

DE

P

P

Spain

ES

P

P

Finland

FI

P

N/A

France

FR

P

P

Italy

IT

P

P

Norway

NO

P

P

Portugal

PT

P

P

Romania

RO

P

P

Sweden

SE

N/A

P

Slovakia

SK

P

P

2.2. Temporal resolution

Daily, monthly, seasonal (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) and annual mean power (PWR, in MW) and cumulated energy consumption (NRG, in MWh).

2.3. Time period

Historical: 1979 to present (ca. 1 month behind real time); updated every month based on ERA5T data availability.

Seasonal Forecasts: The hindcasts cover the 1993-2016 period for the three models used by C3S Energy: ECMWF Sys5, Météo-France Sys7 and UK MetOffice Sys14. ECMWF has all the month, MTFR SY07 currently covers October to April with the rest of the months to be completed by mid- May 2020 as this is a new system. METO SY14 ranges from June to April (notice that METO SY14 is a rolling release model, hindcast have to be computed each months). The forecasts have been

computed every month from the first month of availability in the current version on the CDS:



Forecast availability


ECMWF Sys5

From January 2017

MTFR Sys7

From October 2019

METO Sys14

From June 2019

Projections: 1971-2100

2.4. Spatial resolution

Historical: data available as averages for countries in Table 2.

3. Usage

3.1. Citation(s)

Ho LT, Dubus L, De Felice M and Troccoli A (2020) Reconstruction of Multidecadal Country-Aggregated Hydro Power Generation in Europe based on a Random Forest Model. Energies, 13, 1786.

4. Lineage statement

4.1. Original data source

Historical:

i.          ERA5 for climate indicators

ii.          ENTSO-E Transparency Platform for energy data Products:

i.          Actual Generation Per Production Type (Aggregated Generation per Type [16.1.B&C])

ii.          Installed Capacity per Production type (Installed Generation Capacity Aggregated [14.1.A]

Seasonal Forecasts:

i.          ECMWF seasonal forecast system 5 technical description

ii.          Météo-France seasonal forecast system 7 technical description

iii.          Met Office

Projections: EURO-CORDEX: https://www.euro-cordex.net/; Climate indicators (precipitation and air temperature) available via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) portal.

4.2. Tools used in the production of indicators

R Studio Version 1.1.463 – © 2009-2018 RStudio, Inc. R version 3.5.1 (2018-07-02)
R packages (latest versions): chron, corrr, easyNCDF, fields, lubridate, maptools, ncdf4, raster, readxl, rgdal, rgeos, seas, sf, shapefiles, sp, tidyverse, zoo, reshape2, gridExtra, DALEX, forecast, Cowplot, pdp
NCO netCDF Operators version 4.7.5: ncks

5. Data Quality

The HRE and HRO data reconstruction quality has been assessed for each individual country over the historical period, using ENTSO-E and some other Transmission System Operators data.

Table 2: List of the 11 EURO-CORDEX simulations and the institutes that provided the data.

Short name

Driving GCM

RCM

Contact Institute

Period

HIIC

ECEARTH

HIRAM

Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)

1951 - 2100

RAIC

ECEARTH

RACMO

Royal Netherlands National Meteorological Institute (KNMI)

1950 - 2100

RCIC

ECEARTH

RCA

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)

1970 - 2100

RAMO

HADGEM

RACMO

KNMI

1951 - 2098

RCMO

HADGEM

RCA

SMHI

1970 - 2098

ReMO

HADGEM

REGCM

International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)

1971 - 2099

WRIP

IPSL

WRF 381P

Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL)

1951 - 2100

RCMP

MPI

RCA

SMHI

1970 - 2100

CCMP

MPI

CCLM

Climate Limited-area Modelling Community

1950 - 2100

HINC

NORESM

HIRAM

Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)

1951 - 2100


This document has been produced in the context of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

The activities leading to these results have been contracted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, operator of C3S on behalf of the European Union (Delegation Agreement signed on 11/11/2014 and Contribution Agreement signed on 22/07/2021). All information in this document is provided "as is" and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose.

The users thereof use the information at their sole risk and liability. For the avoidance of all doubt , the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts have no liability in respect of this document, which is merely representing the author's view.

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