GloFAS Seasonal forecast skill is summarised in the interactive "Seasonal forecast skill" layer under the "Evaluation" tab on the GloFAS web map viewer.

Headline seasonal forecast skill score 

The headline ensemble seasonal forecast skill score is the maximum lead time (in weeks), up to 16-weeks ahead, in which the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) is greater than a value of 0.5, when compared to a climatology benchmark forecast. It is provided for all GloFAS web reporting points. Details on the method can be found in GloFAS seasonal forecast skill.

The headline score is provided as colour-coded map where stations with darker colours have high skill at longer lead times. The category "0", marked as light pink squares, represents stations that have forecast skill lower than the 0.5 threshold for one week lead time or more.

Note: CRPSS < 0.5 does not mean that the forecast has no skill at that station. This is only true when the CRPSS ≤ 0.

An explanation of the climatology benchmarks can be viewed in GloFAS seasonal forecast skill.

Pop-out graphs

Pop-out graphs

Time-series skill plot showing CRPS and resulting CRPSS.