Status: Finalised Material from: Linus, Fernando, Alessio, Ivan
Picture
1. Impact
During the end of June northern Italy was hit by several outbreaks of convection, with heavy rain, lightnings and big hails as a results. One severe outbreak took place on 25 June and another on 28 June.
2. Description of the event
The plots below show the observations of 24-hour precipitation (06z-06z) from 24 June to 1 July, including the regional networks that are available via the HDOBS project.
A first convective outbreak took place 25 June, including the early hours of the day. The plot shows the visual satellite image valid at 07Z on 25th June and the lightning strokes for that day.
The plot below shows the observed precipitation in Rovereto (45.53N,11.02E), the area most affected in the alpine region of Trentino. A bit more than 100mm in a single strong downpour on the 25th, with mid-sized hail and few local damages (thanks to Alessio).
The plot below show convective hazards from ENS (experimental product,bottom) vs. observations (lightning density and ESWD reports) for 24 and 25 June.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
25 June
The plots below show the 24-hour precipitation on 25 June (00z-00z) from observations and HRES forecasts.
28 June
The plots below show the 24-hour precipitation on 28 June (00z-00z) from observations and HRES forecasts.
3.3 ENS
25 June
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for precipitation valid for 25 June.
28 June
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for precipitation valid for 28 June.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below shows weekly precipitation anomalies for 26 June - 2 July.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Bad prediction of the 25 June case while good prediction of the 28 June case