The EFAS medium-range flood forecasts provide an overview of flood probability over the coming 10 days. They are created by comparing the EFAS forecast simulations with EFAS flood threshold levels. These flood threshold levels are calculated for every grid cell, based on a discharge time series simulated by the operational LISFLOOD hydrological model from observed meteorological data.
Results are shown as the 'Reporting Points' summary layer in EFAS-IS, and associated products (see EFAS medium-range forecast products).
Additionally, the river discharge medium-range forecasts are also provided as time series through the Copernicus Climate Data Store and other means, described in the CEMS-Flood Data Access pages.
Two additional processing are undertaken on EFAS medium-range forecasts:
- Estimation of the potential level of impact caused by the floodings.
- For stations with river discharge observation available in near-real time, a statistical post-processing to correct the forecasts.
Note there are restrictions regarding accessibility to EFAS medium-range forecasting described in the EFAS-IS dedicated pages.