Status: Finalised Material from: Linus
Picture
1. Impact
On 24 August tropical cyclone Hato made landfall in China. The landfall was a direct hit on Macao and also affected Hong Kong. 12 people is said to have been killed.
2. Description of the event
The plot below shows the MSLP observation at Macao airport (from http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/VMMC?lang=es) :
The plot below shows the storm surge at Quarry Bay in Hong Kong (from http://www.hko.gov.hk/tide/marine/realtide.htm via TC mailing list):
The table below shows observations from Macao, with wind gusts reaching 217 km/h (also from TC mailing list). For people how understand Chinese here is a web page about the event: http://www.weather.gov.hk/forecaster_blog/2017/fb_20170823_uc.htm
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The plots below show the obstat for surface pressure at 45011 (Macao airport).
3.2 HRES
The plots below show the analysis of 10-metre wind and waves in HRES.
The plot below shows the evolution of MSLP at Macao airport in observations (black), HRES forecast from 22 August 12z and 23 August 00z. The forecast from 22 August 12z is almost perfect by the observations from the most peak is missing for some reason (but included in the plot in Section 2.).
3.3 ENS
The plots below show tropical cyclone activity for 22-24 August. The first plot is from 22 August and last from 17 August.
The plots below show the tropical cyclone product for TC Hato.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
6. Additional material
Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Picture
1. Impact
On 24 August tropical cyclone Hato made landfall in China. The landfall was a direct hit on Macao and also affected Hong Kong. 12 people is said to have been killed.
2. Description of the event
The plot below shows the MSLP observation at Macao airport (from http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/VMMC?lang=es) :
The plot below shows the storm surge at Quarry Bay in Hong Kong (from http://www.hko.gov.hk/tide/marine/realtide.htm via TC mailing list):
The table below shows observations from Macao, with wind gusts reaching 217 km/h (also from TC mailing list). For people how understand Chinese here is a web page about the event: http://www.weather.gov.hk/forecaster_blog/2017/fb_20170823_uc.htm
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The plots below show the obstat for surface pressure at 45011 (Macao airport).
3.2 HRES
The plots below show the analysis of 10-metre wind and waves in HRES.
The plot below shows the evolution of MSLP at Macao airport in observations (black), HRES forecast from 22 August 12z and 23 August 00z. The forecast from 22 August 12z is almost perfect by the observations from the most peak is missing for some reason (but included in the plot in Section 2.).
3.3 ENS
The plots below show tropical cyclone activity for 22-24 August. The first plot is from 22 August and last from 17 August.
The plots below show the tropical cyclone product for TC Hato.